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8.1

weighted score 8.1 · nine dimensions

Country Risk Profile

Afghanistan

Sourcing risk, regulatory exposure and audit intelligence for Afghanistan-origin supply chains.

Forced & child labour

8

Widespread child labour in brick kilns, carpet weaving, and mining. ILAB lists multiple Afghan goods. Forced labour documented across informal sectors. 65% acute poverty drives child labour.

Worker rights & FOA

9

Taliban governance eliminates freedom of association. Women banned from most employment. No functioning labour ministry. No independent trade unions. The most restrictive labour rights environment globally.

OHS & audit transparency

9

No international audit body operates in-country. No credible OHS framework. Mining and construction sectors operate without safety oversight. 440+ health clinics closed.

Food & product safety

8

Food safety infrastructure collapsed. 22 million need humanitarian assistance. No functioning regulatory agency for product safety. Import quality controls non-existent.

Environmental & regulatory

6

No environmental enforcement capacity. Mining operations unregulated. Water stress severe. Limited industrial activity reduces some environmental risk categories.

Governance & anti-corruption

9

TI CPI 2025: 16/100. Unrecognised government. Opium economy. Informal taxation by armed groups. No functioning judiciary for commercial disputes. Among the most corrupt environments globally.

Tariff & preferential access

7

EU EBA suspended. No preferential market access. MFN tariffs apply. Comprehensive sanctions on Taliban entities restrict trade. No recognised sovereign counterparty for trade agreements.

Non-tariff barriers

8

Sanctions screening creates extreme compliance burden. Banking system non-functional for international transfers. No recognised government for certificates of origin or phytosanitary certificates.

Supply chain traceability

9

Traceability effectively impossible. No functioning customs authority. Cross-border smuggling endemic. Multi-tier supply chains in carpets and dried fruits are opaque by design.

Labour & Social Risk

Labour & Social Risk

Forced labour risk
Widespread child labour and forced labour documented by ILO and UNICEF. Children engaged in brick kilns, carpet weaving, mining, and agriculture. Taliban governance has eliminated women from most formal employment.
Sectors at elevated risk
Carpet weaving (documented child labour), dried fruit and nut processing, mining (lapis lazuli, talc, marble), brick kilns, and agriculture. Opium poppy cultivation remains a significant informal sector.
Audit limitations
Independent social compliance audits are impossible under Taliban governance. No international audit body operates in-country. Supply chain verification depends entirely on cross-border tracing.
ILO conventions
Afghanistan ratified core ILO conventions under previous governments. The Taliban Islamic Emirate is not recognised by any country and does not participate in ILO governance. Enforcement is non-existent.
Women's rights
Women banned from secondary and higher education, most employment, and appearing in public without male guardian. The most restrictive gender regime globally — directly relevant to any social compliance assessment.

EU Regulatory Exposure

EU Regulatory Exposure

GSP status
Afghanistan's EBA (Everything But Arms) status under EU GSP has been suspended following the Taliban takeover. No preferential access to the EU market.
Sanctions
Comprehensive EU and UN sanctions on Taliban-designated individuals and entities. Financial transactions face significant compliance barriers due to banking system collapse and sanctions screening.
EU Forced Labour Regulation
Regulation (EU) 2024/3015 applies from December 2027. Afghanistan-origin goods — particularly carpets and dried fruits — carry extreme risk of forced and child labour investigation.
EUDR exposure
Limited EUDR exposure. Afghanistan is not a significant exporter of EUDR-regulated commodities. Dried fruit exports are outside EUDR scope.
Recognition status
No country recognises the Taliban Islamic Emirate. This creates fundamental legal uncertainty for any commercial relationship — contracts, dispute resolution, and regulatory compliance all lack a recognised sovereign counterparty.

Logistics & Supply Chain

Logistics & Supply Chain

Landlocked
Afghanistan is landlocked. All trade depends on transit through Pakistan (Karachi port via Torkham/Chaman) or Iran (Bandar Abbas via Islam Qala). Both corridors face political and security risk.
Key exports
Dried fruits and nuts (raisins, almonds, pine nuts), carpets, saffron, marble, and gemstones. Estimated $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral reserves (lithium, copper, rare earths) remain undeveloped.
Transit corridors
Pakistan corridor: Torkham → Peshawar → Karachi (primary). Iran corridor: Islam Qala → Bandar Abbas (secondary). Central Asian corridor via Hairatan to Uzbekistan (limited).
Typical transit time
30-45 days to EU ports via Karachi. Highly variable due to border closures and security disruptions.
Infrastructure status
Road network severely degraded by decades of conflict. No functioning rail network. Kabul airport operational but with limited cargo capacity. Banking system largely non-functional for international transfers.