weighted score 8.1 · nine dimensions
Country Risk Profile
Afghanistan
Sourcing risk, regulatory exposure and audit intelligence for Afghanistan-origin supply chains.
Forced & child labour
8
Widespread child labour in brick kilns, carpet weaving, and mining. ILAB lists multiple Afghan goods. Forced labour documented across informal sectors. 65% acute poverty drives child labour.
Worker rights & FOA
9
Taliban governance eliminates freedom of association. Women banned from most employment. No functioning labour ministry. No independent trade unions. The most restrictive labour rights environment globally.
OHS & audit transparency
9
No international audit body operates in-country. No credible OHS framework. Mining and construction sectors operate without safety oversight. 440+ health clinics closed.
Food & product safety
8
Food safety infrastructure collapsed. 22 million need humanitarian assistance. No functioning regulatory agency for product safety. Import quality controls non-existent.
Environmental & regulatory
6
No environmental enforcement capacity. Mining operations unregulated. Water stress severe. Limited industrial activity reduces some environmental risk categories.
Governance & anti-corruption
9
TI CPI 2025: 16/100. Unrecognised government. Opium economy. Informal taxation by armed groups. No functioning judiciary for commercial disputes. Among the most corrupt environments globally.
Tariff & preferential access
7
EU EBA suspended. No preferential market access. MFN tariffs apply. Comprehensive sanctions on Taliban entities restrict trade. No recognised sovereign counterparty for trade agreements.
Non-tariff barriers
8
Sanctions screening creates extreme compliance burden. Banking system non-functional for international transfers. No recognised government for certificates of origin or phytosanitary certificates.
Supply chain traceability
9
Traceability effectively impossible. No functioning customs authority. Cross-border smuggling endemic. Multi-tier supply chains in carpets and dried fruits are opaque by design.
Labour & Social Risk
Labour & Social Risk
- Forced labour risk
- Widespread child labour and forced labour documented by ILO and UNICEF. Children engaged in brick kilns, carpet weaving, mining, and agriculture. Taliban governance has eliminated women from most formal employment.
- Sectors at elevated risk
- Carpet weaving (documented child labour), dried fruit and nut processing, mining (lapis lazuli, talc, marble), brick kilns, and agriculture. Opium poppy cultivation remains a significant informal sector.
- Audit limitations
- Independent social compliance audits are impossible under Taliban governance. No international audit body operates in-country. Supply chain verification depends entirely on cross-border tracing.
- ILO conventions
- Afghanistan ratified core ILO conventions under previous governments. The Taliban Islamic Emirate is not recognised by any country and does not participate in ILO governance. Enforcement is non-existent.
- Women's rights
- Women banned from secondary and higher education, most employment, and appearing in public without male guardian. The most restrictive gender regime globally — directly relevant to any social compliance assessment.
EU Regulatory Exposure
EU Regulatory Exposure
- GSP status
- Afghanistan's EBA (Everything But Arms) status under EU GSP has been suspended following the Taliban takeover. No preferential access to the EU market.
- Sanctions
- Comprehensive EU and UN sanctions on Taliban-designated individuals and entities. Financial transactions face significant compliance barriers due to banking system collapse and sanctions screening.
- EU Forced Labour Regulation
- Regulation (EU) 2024/3015 applies from December 2027. Afghanistan-origin goods — particularly carpets and dried fruits — carry extreme risk of forced and child labour investigation.
- EUDR exposure
- Limited EUDR exposure. Afghanistan is not a significant exporter of EUDR-regulated commodities. Dried fruit exports are outside EUDR scope.
- Recognition status
- No country recognises the Taliban Islamic Emirate. This creates fundamental legal uncertainty for any commercial relationship — contracts, dispute resolution, and regulatory compliance all lack a recognised sovereign counterparty.
Logistics & Supply Chain
Logistics & Supply Chain
- Landlocked
- Afghanistan is landlocked. All trade depends on transit through Pakistan (Karachi port via Torkham/Chaman) or Iran (Bandar Abbas via Islam Qala). Both corridors face political and security risk.
- Key exports
- Dried fruits and nuts (raisins, almonds, pine nuts), carpets, saffron, marble, and gemstones. Estimated $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral reserves (lithium, copper, rare earths) remain undeveloped.
- Transit corridors
- Pakistan corridor: Torkham → Peshawar → Karachi (primary). Iran corridor: Islam Qala → Bandar Abbas (secondary). Central Asian corridor via Hairatan to Uzbekistan (limited).
- Typical transit time
- 30-45 days to EU ports via Karachi. Highly variable due to border closures and security disruptions.
- Infrastructure status
- Road network severely degraded by decades of conflict. No functioning rail network. Kabul airport operational but with limited cargo capacity. Banking system largely non-functional for international transfers.