weighted score 6.4 · nine dimensions
Country Risk Profile
China
Sourcing risk, regulatory exposure and audit intelligence for China-origin supply chains.
Forced & child labour
8
UFLPA Xinjiang rebuttable presumption. Multiple ILAB 2024 listings including cotton, electronics, aluminium. Audit access severely restricted.
Worker rights & FOA
8
ILO C087 and C098 not ratified. Independent trade unions not permitted. Freedom of association suppressed.
OHS & audit transparency
7
Audit access restricted in Xinjiang. SMETA and BSCI not considered reliable evidence for Xinjiang-origin goods.
Food & product safety
6
SAMR functional but elevated RASFF alert rate for Chinese-origin food products across multiple categories.
Environmental & regulatory
3
EUDR low-risk classification (May 2025). No active IUU card. Distant-water fishing fleet carries some IUU exposure.
Governance & anti-corruption
6
TI CPI 2024: 42/100. State-directed economy limits institutional independence. Regulatory capture risk.
Tariff & preferential access
7
Graduated from EU GSP in 2015. MFN tariffs apply. No EU-China FTA. Anti-dumping duties on multiple product categories.
Non-tariff barriers
7
Multiple product categories under enhanced controls. CBAM applies to metals from 2026. UFLPA creates US border risk affecting EU supply chain credibility.
Supply chain traceability
6
Xinjiang traceability effectively impossible via social audit. Multi-tier opacity widespread. Sub-contracting endemic.
Labour & Social Risk
Labour & Social Risk
- Forced labour risk
- Xinjiang region flagged for state-sponsored forced labour of Uyghur and other minority workers. US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) creates a rebuttable presumption of forced labour for goods from Xinjiang.
- Sectors at elevated risk
- Cotton, polysilicon, aluminium, electronics, garments, seafood processing — all with documented Xinjiang supply chain links.
- Audit limitations
- Independent social compliance audits are severely restricted in Xinjiang. SMETA and BSCI audits are not considered reliable evidence for Xinjiang-origin goods.
- ILO conventions
- China has not ratified ILO C087 (Freedom of Association) or C098 (Right to Organise and Collective Bargaining). Independent trade unions are not permitted.
- ILAB status
- Multiple goods listed on US Department of Labor List of Goods Produced by Child or Forced Labor, including cotton and electronics.
EU Regulatory Exposure
EU Regulatory Exposure
- GSP status
- China graduated from EU GSP in 2015 as an upper-middle income country. Standard MFN tariffs apply. No EU-China FTA in force.
- Anti-dumping & CVD
- Numerous EU anti-dumping and countervailing duty measures in force across ceramics, steel, solar panels, tyres, and other product categories.
- EUDR exposure
- China produces and processes soya, rubber, and wood products — all EUDR-regulated commodities. Due diligence statements required for relevant imports from 2025/2026.
- EU Forced Labour Regulation
- Regulation (EU) 2024/3015 applies from December 2027. Xinjiang-origin goods present a high likelihood of challenge under Article 5 investigations.
- CBR mechanism
- EU Carbon Border Adjustment Regulation (CBAM) applies to steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, and electricity from 2026. Chinese exporters of covered goods must submit CBAM declarations.
Logistics & Supply Chain
Logistics & Supply Chain
- Primary export corridor
- South China Sea → Strait of Malacca → Indian Ocean → Suez Canal → EU ports
- Key transit chokepoints
- Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal
- Main EU destination ports
- Rotterdam, Hamburg, Antwerp, Felixstowe
- Typical transit time
- 25–32 days to Northwest Europe
- Scope 3 relevance
- Long-haul maritime freight from China to Northwest Europe generates approximately 0.9–1.3 kg CO₂e per kg of cargo (sea freight estimate)