weighted score 5.1 · nine dimensions
Country Risk Profile
Guatemala
Sourcing risk, regulatory exposure and audit intelligence for Guatemala-origin supply chains.
Forced & child labour
6
TVPRA lists 7 products (broccoli, coffee, corn, fireworks, gravel, palm oil, sugar). Child labour prevalent in agriculture. Forced labour documented in palm oil and sugar sectors.
Worker rights & FOA
5
One of the most dangerous countries for trade union leaders. ILO high-level monitoring. Violence against organisers is well-documented. Ratified core conventions but enforcement is weak.
OHS & audit transparency
5
Audit access is generally possible but quality varies. Rural agricultural operations are difficult to audit comprehensively. Seasonal and informal labour complicates social audit coverage.
Food & product safety
4
Agricultural exports generally meet importing country standards. GLOBALG.A.P. and Rainforest Alliance certification growing in coffee and banana sectors. Pesticide residue monitoring is improving.
Environmental & regulatory
6
EUDR exposure through palm oil and coffee. Deforestation in Petén and Alta Verapaz is an active concern. Water pollution from agricultural runoff and mining operations documented.
Governance & anti-corruption
8
TI CPI 2024: 28/100. CICIG expelled 2019. Arévalo government attempting reform but facing institutional resistance. Judiciary independence compromised.
Tariff & preferential access
2
EU-Central America Association Agreement provides preferential access for key agricultural exports. CAFTA-DR covers US market access. Low tariff barrier for primary export categories.
Non-tariff barriers
4
SPS requirements for agricultural exports are manageable. EUDR due diligence requirements for palm oil and coffee add compliance burden. No active EU anti-dumping measures.
Supply chain traceability
6
Coffee traceability is improving through specialty certification. Palm oil and sugar supply chains have limited smallholder traceability. Multi-tier opacity in agricultural commodities.
Labour & Social Risk
Labour & Social Risk
- TVPRA listings
- The US Department of Labor TVPRA list includes 7 Guatemalan products: broccoli, coffee, corn, fireworks, gravel, palm oil, and sugar. These listings indicate documented evidence of forced labour or child labour in production.
- Freedom of association
- Guatemala is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for trade union leaders. Violence against union organisers is well-documented by the ILO and ITUC. The ILO has maintained Guatemala on its high-level monitoring list.
- Child labour
- Child labour is prevalent in agriculture, particularly in coffee, sugar, and cardamom harvesting. Rural indigenous communities are disproportionately affected. Guatemala has ratified ILO C138 and C182 but enforcement remains weak.
EU Regulatory Exposure
EU Regulatory Exposure
- Governance & corruption
- Transparency International CPI score of 28/100 translates to a Governance score of 8 (high risk). The CICIG (International Commission against Impunity) was expelled by the government in 2019, removing a key anti-corruption mechanism.
- EU-CA FTA & tariffs
- The EU-Central America Association Agreement provides preferential tariff access (Tariff dimension score: 2). This significantly benefits agricultural exports including coffee, sugar, and palm oil entering the EU market.
- EUDR exposure
- Guatemala has significant exposure to the EU Deforestation Regulation through palm oil and coffee exports. Both commodities require EUDR due diligence statements. Deforestation in Petén and Alta Verapaz departments is an active concern.
- EU Forced Labour Regulation
- Regulation (EU) 2024/3015 applies from December 2027. TVPRA listings on 7 products create a documented risk basis for Article 5 investigations targeting Guatemala-origin supply chains.
Governance & Institutional Risk
Governance & Institutional Risk
- CICIG expulsion
- The International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a UN-backed anti-corruption body, was expelled by President Morales in 2019. This removed a critical institutional check on corruption and organised crime infiltration of state institutions.
- Arévalo government
- President Bernardo Arévalo took office in January 2024 on an anti-corruption platform. His government faces significant institutional resistance from entrenched interests in the judiciary and public ministry. Reform progress is slow but directionally positive.