weighted score 6.6 · nine dimensions
Country Risk Profile
Turkmenistan
Sourcing risk, regulatory exposure and audit intelligence for Turkmenistan-origin supply chains.
Forced & child labour
7
State-orchestrated forced labour in cotton harvesting documented by international observers. Cotton listed on US ILAB list. Independent monitoring not permitted.
Worker rights & FOA
7
Independent trade unions do not exist. Freedom of association suppressed. All labour organisations state-controlled.
OHS & audit transparency
6
Independent audits not feasible. Among the most closed societies globally. No credible third-party audit infrastructure.
Food & product safety
5
Limited EU-bound food exports. Domestic food safety systems are opaque. No significant RASFF history due to minimal trade volumes.
Environmental & regulatory
4
Significant environmental degradation around the Aral Sea basin. Gas flaring widespread. Limited environmental regulatory enforcement.
Governance & anti-corruption
9
TI CPI 2025: 17/100. One of the most corrupt and opaque governance systems globally. Dynastic succession from Berdimuhamedov father to son.
Tariff & preferential access
6
EU GSP beneficiary. Limited trade relationship with the EU. Not a WTO member (observer status only).
Non-tariff barriers
7
Extreme state control over all economic activity. Foreign trade is state-managed. Currency controls and opaque licensing requirements.
Supply chain traceability
8
Traceability effectively impossible. State control prevents independent verification. No transparency infrastructure for supply chain due diligence.
Labour & Social Risk
Labour & Social Risk
- Forced labour risk
- Cotton harvesting in Turkmenistan has been documented by international observers as involving state-orchestrated forced labour. Public sector workers, students, and health workers have been mobilised for annual cotton picking campaigns.
- ILO conventions
- Turkmenistan has ratified ILO C029 (Forced Labour) and C105 (Abolition of Forced Labour), but enforcement is effectively absent. Independent monitoring is not permitted. The ILO has no active monitoring programme in Turkmenistan comparable to the one that operated in Uzbekistan.
- ILAB status
- Cotton from Turkmenistan is listed on the US Department of Labor List of Goods Produced by Child or Forced Labor.
- Worker rights
- Independent trade unions do not exist. Freedom of association is not permitted. All labour organisations are state-controlled. Working conditions in the hydrocarbon sector are opaque to outside scrutiny.
- Audit access
- Independent social compliance audits are not feasible in Turkmenistan. The country is among the most closed societies globally. No credible third-party audit infrastructure exists.
EU Regulatory Exposure
EU Regulatory Exposure
- GSP status
- Turkmenistan benefits from the EU's standard GSP scheme. Given its governance profile, any enhanced scrutiny under GSP conditionality provisions could be triggered.
- EU Forced Labour Regulation
- Regulation (EU) 2024/3015 applies from December 2027. Cotton and textiles with Turkmen-origin raw materials present elevated risk of investigation under Article 5.
- EUDR exposure
- Limited direct EUDR exposure. Turkmenistan is not a significant exporter of EUDR-regulated commodities to the EU.
- CBAM exposure
- Minimal. Turkmenistan's EU exports are dominated by hydrocarbons, which are outside CBAM scope. Potential future exposure if gas-derived chemicals or fertilisers are exported.
Logistics & Supply Chain
Logistics & Supply Chain
- Primary export corridor
- Gas pipelines to China (Central Asia-China pipeline). TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) under construction, first gas expected late 2026/early 2027.
- Maritime access
- Landlocked. Access to international maritime trade via Caspian Sea ports (Turkmenbashi) connecting to Azerbaijan/Georgia/Turkey rail corridors (Middle Corridor).
- Infrastructure quality
- Domestic transport infrastructure is limited. Road and rail networks are below regional standards. Logistics complexity is high for non-hydrocarbon goods.
- Trade partners
- China is overwhelmingly the dominant buyer of Turkmen gas, purchasing approximately 80-90% of exports. Extreme concentration on a single buyer creates systemic vulnerability.