Methodology — Geopolitical & Concentration Risk

Scoring Scale

How Scores Are Assigned

All five dimensions use a 1–9 ordinal scale. Scores are assigned by structured expert review against the primary sources listed below. They are not algorithmically generated — each score is a bounded judgement anchored to a verifiable source.

1–3 Low risk

Stable conditions, no material sourcing exposure on this dimension.

4–6 Moderate risk

Conditions warrant monitoring. Exposure exists but is not acute.

7–9 High risk

Material sourcing exposure. Active risk management recommended.

D1

Geopolitical Conflict

Scores the level of active armed conflict, territorial disputes, and geopolitical tension directly involving the sourcing country — assessed for their potential to disrupt production, logistics, or trade access.

What is scored

Active conflict events, militarised territorial disputes, proxy involvement, and bilateral tensions with major trading partners that create supply chain exposure.

What is not scored

Historical conflicts without current operational relevance. General political tension not linked to supply chain disruption risk.

Primary source

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) — event-level conflict data updated weekly.

Secondary source

CFR Global Conflict Tracker — status classification of active conflicts by country.

D2

Supplier Concentration

Scores the degree to which this country dominates global supply in categories typically sourced by procurement-intensive industries. High concentration means a single-country disruption event could be impossible to reroute quickly.

What is scored

Estimated global export market share across goods categories relevant to agri-food, manufacturing, and industrial procurement. Countries dominant in multiple strategic categories score higher.

What is not scored

Absolute export volume. A large exporter with many competitors scores lower than a smaller exporter that is the only viable source.

Primary source

ITC TradeMap — HS-level global trade flow and market share data.

Secondary source

UN Comtrade — verification of bilateral trade flows and concentration ratios.

D3

Climate & Physical Risk

Scores exposure to climate-driven and physical hazards — typhoons, flooding, drought, seismic and volcanic events — that could disrupt agricultural production, manufacturing capacity, or export logistics.

What is scored

Frequency and severity of historical climate and physical hazard events; projected future exposure; infrastructure resilience. Events that have caused documented supply chain disruption receive additional weight.

What is not scored

Long-term climate transition risk (carbon pricing, stranded assets). That is captured separately in the EU Compliance index under Environmental & regulatory.

Primary source

Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index — annual ranking of countries by weather-related loss events.

Secondary source

INFORM Risk Index (EU Joint Research Centre) — composite hazard and exposure scoring.

D4

Sanctions Exposure

Scores the current and near-term risk that US, EU, or UN sanctions restrict trade, payments, or logistics involving the sourcing country. Includes entity-level sanctions where they materially affect supply chain participants.

What is scored

Active country-level and sector-level sanctions from the US (OFAC), EU (Consolidated Sanctions List), and UN Security Council. Entity-level sanctions are scored where they affect major export industries.

What is not scored

Sanctions risk the country imposes on others. Export controls applied by the sourcing country to its own goods.

Escalation signal

Countries with no current sanctions but with active geopolitical tension involving sanctioning bodies are noted. Rapid escalation is possible — China is the primary example.

Primary source

US Treasury OFAC — Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons list.

Secondary source

EU Sanctions Map — official EU consolidated sanctions database.

D5

Policy Continuity & Property Rights

Scores the risk that a change of government — whether through election, coup, or internal party restructuring — reverses market-oriented policy, nationalises private assets, or creates material discontinuity for foreign-owned supply chain relationships.

What is scored

Risk of expropriation or nationalisation of private assets. Risk of abrupt reversal of market capitalism. Risk of contract discontinuity for private sector (not government procurement) relationships. Structural opacity in policy formation that makes risk hard to anticipate.

What is not scored

Coup frequency or regime change rate in isolation. A country with a history of coups but consistent market-capitalist policies scores low on this dimension. Thailand is the reference case: multiple coups since 1932, but foreign supply chain assets and private commercial contracts have been consistently protected across administrations.

Distinction from D1

D1 scores physical disruption risk from conflict. D5 scores legal and commercial disruption risk from policy change. Both can be elevated simultaneously (e.g. China) or independently.

Primary source

Fraser Institute Economic Freedom of the World — property rights and legal system sub-index.

Secondary source

PRS Group International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) — investment profile and contract viability scores.

Coverage & Cadence

Country Coverage & Update Schedule

Countries covered

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam.

Review cadence

Annual. Scores are reviewed each January against updated primary source releases. Interim updates are issued if a material change event occurs (new sanctions regime, active conflict escalation, major climate event affecting production).

Relationship to EU Compliance index

This index is a separate analytical product. Both indices use the 1–9 scale. They are designed to be read together — EU Compliance covers regulatory and labour risk; Geopolitical & Concentration covers structural and macro risk.