Announced is not built

Stage reached Environmental permit legally binding (KHO 2023), ~EUR 25m state aid granted; never FID^[3,4,5]

Wound down in February 2026 citing difficult financing for large green-transition projects; the company merges into its parent in July 2026. A project can hold every permit and still never find its balance sheet.

Stage reached Basic engineering completed, electrolyser supplier contracted; never FID^[8,9]

Withdrawn October 2024 on weak financials and Finnish distribution-obligation rules limiting the economic use of RFNBO hydrogen in refining. The wider February 2025 programme then cut ~510 positions and postponed most of the Porvoo transformation.

Stage reached Basic engineering, site selection (Kotka lost to Rotterdam); FID deferred 2022-2024, never taken^[11,15]

Discontinued May 2025: a multi-feedstock greenfield's capex and opex would compromise the long-term business case, in UPM's own words. The operating Lappeenranta refinery was named the nucleus instead.

Stage reached EIA and site acquisition; FID postponed repeatedly, never taken^[12]

The quiet-death archetype: no cancellation statement was ever issued. The last affirmative company signal was 2022; project databases marked it cancelled in late 2024. The announcement made headlines; the death made none.

Stage reached MoUs, land lease and preparatory work; never FID^[20,21]

Abandoned in the US Inflation Reduction Act pivot of November 2023; the land lease lapsed weeks later, and by 2025 the parent had renamed itself T1 Energy and exited battery cells altogether. The anchor customer for a Finnish gigafactory never existed.

Stage reached Announced, early permitting; Luleå took the 2024 FID first and Raahe was sequenced behind it^[16,17]

November 2025: the new Raahe mini-mill plan was dropped for a staged brownfield EAF retrofit, earliest around 2030, with the blast furnaces relined in the meantime. Not a cancellation, but billions became hundreds of millions, and the decision date keeps moving.

Stage reached EIA submitted 2024; the 2025 permit application already excluded the steel mill; never FID^[18,19]

May 2026: the integrated steel mill was shelved for a sponge-iron-first phase, with roughly EUR 4bn of the financing never found. Announced with 1,200 jobs and production by end-2026; by that date the mill had left its own permit application.

Stage reached JV founded, environmental permit granted then appealed; never FID^[22]

CNGR withdrew in April 2025, citing Chinese pCAM overcapacity and US tariffs; Finnish Minerals Group bought the venture to 100% and is reviewing whether any continuation works. The permit fight ran three years; the market moved first.

Stage reached Built (~2022) but startup blocked in court; permit became legally final July 2024^[24,25]

The inversion of the usual story: the plant exists, and since July 2024 the permit is final, yet the site sits on indefinite hold with no public restart, sale or write-off since. Once the legal constraint lifted, the business case had gone.

Stage reached Built and operating; Kajaani's sawdust plant reached about a third of its 10 Ml/y target^[6,7]

All Finnish ethanol production ended by 2023 and the Kajaani plant is being demolished. Domestic ethanol supply, which the 2016 strategy era assumed, is now zero, one reason the gasoline-side decarbonisation quietly stalled.

Stage reached Construction start decision Mar 2025; frame up during 2025, production target 2027^[23]

The battery cluster's live test, and the counterweight to Hamina and Harjavalta: a 70/30 Chinese-Finnish venture that did take its construction decision. Whether it reaches commercial production in 2027 is a checkable date.

Stage reached Final environmental permit, Gasum full offtake, EUR 230m EIB framework approved; FID pending^[27]

The furthest-along project of the P2X wave still short of FID: permits, offtake and a lender in place, with the decision reported as imminent since 2024 and production slipping from 2026 to 2027. What it does next scores the whole wave.

Stage reached Environmental and water permits Jan 2025; FID not taken^[28]

Permitted and repeatedly re-dated, with replication already announced for Pori and Kemi before the first plant has an investment decision. Announcing the fleet before the first FID is the pattern this tracker exists to time-stamp.

Stage reached FID Feb 2021; started up on schedule Sep 2023^[14]

The largest Finnish forest-industry investment ever, delivered on schedule: an incumbent with captive wood supply, existing infrastructure and a known product market. The contrast case for every greenfield on this page.

Stage reached FID and financial close 2021; producing since autumn 2022^[13]

Modest scale, proven technology, a bond-financed close and an eighteen-month build. Revenue has grown every year since startup on thin margins; reports of financial distress in 2025 did not verify and are not repeated here.

Stage reached FID Feb 2022; commercial operation Feb 2025^[26]

Finland's first industrial-scale green hydrogen plant, and as of mid-2026 essentially the only electrolyser project of the announced wave to have crossed from FID to commercial operation. Half the capex was public.

Stage reached FID Oct 2018; ramp-up from 2021^[29]

State-anchored, sitting on its own mine's nickel stream, with a Stellantis offtake signed in 2023. Like Kemi and Lappeenranta, the built column keeps selecting for incumbents with captive feedstock.

Stage reached Built; regular production Apr 2023, ~14 years late^[30]

The reminder that built is not the same as on time or on budget. It anchors the other end of the tracker's honesty: this page scores delivery, not press releases in either direction.