Data Methodology
This page documents the trade data engine used to generate the Trade Signals layer. All indicators are derived from build-time Eurostat COMEXT snapshots and computed deterministically (no runtime API calls).
Definitions
COMEXT: Eurostat’s trade statistics system used as the source layer for this site.
Dataset: one JSON snapshot representing a fixed combination of reporter (EU/FI), partner group (CN/ASEAN6/US/JP), SITC section (0–9), and monthly time range (~24 months).
Reporter: EU aggregate or Finland (FI), depending on dataset.
FLOW = 1: imports (the current trade engine is import-focused).
Values: nominal EUR values as reported by COMEXT (no inflation adjustment; no seasonal adjustment).
SITC 0–9 explained
The trade engine groups products using SITC Rev.4 sections (0–9). These are broad categories intended for macro-structure analysis rather than product-level supplier inference.
SITC 0 — Food and live animals
Agricultural and food supply chains; seasonal patterns and policy sensitivity can dominate signals.
SITC 1 — Beverages and tobacco
Branded consumer goods with excise taxes and regulatory constraints; often stable but policy-affected.
SITC 2 — Crude materials, inedible (excl. fuels)
Upstream inputs such as timber, pulp, ores, rubber; typically commodity-like pricing and cyclical demand.
SITC 3 — Mineral fuels, lubricants, related materials
Oil, gas, coal-related products; geopolitics and price shocks often outweigh gradual trade structure change.
SITC 4 — Animal & vegetable oils, fats, waxes
Edible oils and industrial fats; tied to agricultural output and food processing capacity.
SITC 5 — Chemicals and related products
Industrial chemicals and related products; higher value density and compliance exposure (standards, regulation).
SITC 6 — Manufactured goods (chiefly by material)
Material-based manufactures (metals, paper, textiles, wood manufactures); often foundational to industrial supply.
SITC 7 — Machinery and transport equipment
Machines, electronics, vehicles/parts; higher complexity, longer lead times, and stronger supply-chain constraints.
SITC 8 — Miscellaneous manufactured articles
Broad bucket for finished goods (household items, tools, consumer articles); commonly relevant to durable goods.
SITC 9 — Commodities and transactions n.e.s.
Residual/special transactions category; interpret cautiously and avoid over-weighting in strategic conclusions.
Practical note: SITC 6–8 tend to be the most relevant for durable goods and industrial procurement signals.
Data source
Eurostat COMEXT (dataset: ds-059331). Monthly import data, limited to the most recent ~24 months. Data is ingested at build-time and stored locally under src/data/comext/. No runtime API calls are made.
Architecture
- Build-time ingestion only
- Canonical
partner_mixdataset structure - Geo-split reporting (e.g., EU vs FI)
- Deterministic JSON snapshot outputs
- Manifest-based dataset indexing (index.json)
Baseline definition
Shares are calculated within a restricted partner subset: China (CN), ASEAN-6 (TH, VN, MY, ID, PH, SG), United States (US), and Japan (JP). Shares represent proportions within this defined baseline — not total global trade share.
Signal definitions
Share: partner_value / baseline_total
24-month share delta: latest_share − share_24_months_ago
PDI_max: top_share × (1 + top_share_delta_24m)
PDI_CN: cn_share × (1 + cn_share_delta_24m)
12m vs 12m growth: rolling 12-month aggregate compared to the prior 12-month aggregate.
Interpretation note: PDI terms are designed to highlight concentration risk and its recent movement (within the restricted baseline). A higher value indicates a stronger “dominant partner + momentum” signal.
Data limitations
- Monthly data may be revised
- Nominal EUR values (no inflation adjustment)
- No seasonal adjustment applied
- 24-month window limits long-cycle inference
- Restricted baseline excludes other global partners
- SITC sections are broad; they support structure signals, not product-level sourcing conclusions.