EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)

Structural

Definitional or legal. No counterfactual.

• Covers: Electricity
• Covers: Iron & steel
• Covers: Cement
• Covers: Aluminium
• Covers: Hydrogen

Causal / evidential

Licenses a counterfactual. Confidence and identification (how the arrow was earned: statutory, forward-test, natural-experiment, or mechanism only) shown per edge.

• Raises cost of: Electricity (measured) · mechanism
• Raises cost of: Iron & steel (inferred) · mechanism