Methodology & Data Sources

Data freshness

Update Schedule & Data Freshness

The calculator combines three data inputs with different update frequencies. This page documents each source, its cadence, and how to verify the data is current.

EUA price

Refreshed weekly. Scraped from investing.com front-month EUA future at build time. Stored in eu_ets_price.json. Automatically updated on each site deploy.

Phaseout schedule

Fixed by statute. CBAM Regulation (EU) 2023/956 Article 36(b) and ETS Directive amendments. Will not change unless the regulation is amended. Stored in cbam_phaseout.json.

Carbon intensity

Reviewed annually in January. Last updated 2026-05-16. Next review scheduled 2027-01. Stored in cbam_intensity.json with source_year per entry.

Carbon price presets

Checked quarterly. China ETS, Korea ETS, UK ETS, and Switzerland carbon prices are approximate and should be verified against current trading data before use in formal calculations.

Iron & steel

Iron & Steel Intensity Sources

Carbon intensity varies primarily by production route (BF-BOF vs EAF) and electricity grid carbon content. BF-BOF uses coal as both fuel and reductant; EAF melts scrap using electricity.

Primary source

IEA Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap (2020). Table 2.2: global averages by production route. Updated in IEA Net Zero by 2050 (2021) and IEA Energy Technology Perspectives.

Secondary source

World Steel Association 'Climate Action' dataset. Facility-level CO2 data from ~85% of global crude steel production. Published annually.

EU benchmark

Eurofer annual sustainability report and EU ETS benchmark values for free allocation. These are the regulatory floor for EU producers.

Country-specific

IEEFA reports for India and SE Asia. JISF decarbonisation roadmap for Japan. ABM (Brazilian Mining Association) for charcoal-route intensity in Brazil.

Range meaning

Low: best-practice installations with modern equipment and cleaner fuel mix. Mid: country/route average. High: older installations, captive coal power, or high clinker-to-steel ratios.

What to check annually

IEA publishes updated sector data in its annual World Energy Outlook and periodic technology roadmap updates. World Steel releases updated intensity data each spring.

Cement

Cement Intensity Sources

Cement emissions are roughly 60% process (calcination of limestone, chemistry-locked) and 40% fuel (kiln heating). The clinker-to-cement ratio is the main variable: lower ratios mean more blending with supplementary cementitious materials.

Primary source

GCCA 'Getting the Numbers Right' (GNR) database. Industry gold standard covering ~30% of global production with installation-level data. Updated annually.

Secondary source

Cembureau activity reports for EU-specific data. Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TCMA) for Turkey. PCA for United States.

Key variable

Clinker-to-cement ratio. Turkey's high ratio (~0.80) produces higher intensity than China's increasingly blended cements (~0.60-0.65). EU average ~0.73.

What to check annually

GCCA publishes updated GNR data each year. Check for changes in clinker ratios by country, which shift slowly but measurably over 3-5 year periods.

Aluminium

Aluminium Intensity Sources

Primary aluminium is electricity-intensive (~15 MWh/t). The electricity source dominates intensity: hydro-smelted aluminium (Norway, Iceland, Canada) is 5-10x lower than coal-smelted (China, India, Australia). CBAM currently covers direct emissions only for aluminium; indirect (electricity) emissions are reported but not yet in the financial obligation.

Primary source

International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Publishes lifecycle GHG data by region annually. The authoritative global dataset.

Secondary sources

Hydro ASA sustainability report for Norway. UC Rusal for Russia. EGA for UAE. Gulf Aluminium Council for Middle East aggregate.

Key variable

Electricity grid carbon intensity at the smelter location. Coal-grid smelting (China, India) produces 16-21 tCO2e/t. Hydro smelting (Norway) produces 1.5-3 tCO2e/t.

Indirect emissions

CBAM currently excludes indirect emissions from the financial obligation for aluminium. This is under review. If included, the calculator's aluminium figures would need significant upward revision for coal-grid origins.

What to check annually

IAI publishes updated regional data each spring. Watch for regulatory changes on indirect emissions inclusion in CBAM implementing acts.

Fertilisers

Fertiliser Intensity Sources

Ammonia production is the dominant emissions source. The feedstock split between natural gas and coal is the key variable: coal-based ammonia (China ~30% of global production) is roughly 2x the intensity of gas-based production.

Primary source

International Fertilizer Association (IFA) benchmarking studies. Global dataset of production efficiency by feedstock, updated periodically.

Secondary source

Fertilizers Europe for EU-specific data. IEA Ammonia Technology Roadmap.

Ammonia split

Gas-based: 1.4-2.1 tCO2e/t. Coal-based (China): 3.5-4.5 tCO2e/t. The feedstock determines the intensity range more than any other variable.

Nitric acid

N2O abatement is mandatory in the EU under ETS but absent in many exporting countries. Abated: 0.3-0.8 tCO2e/t. Unabated: 1.5-2.5 tCO2e/t. This is a major CBAM cost driver.

What to check annually

IFA publishes updated benchmarking data. Watch for China's coal-to-gas conversion progress in ammonia, which would reduce intensity over time.

Hydrogen

Hydrogen Intensity Sources

Hydrogen intensity is entirely production-route dependent. Grey hydrogen from natural gas SMR (~10 tCO2e/t) is the baseline; coal gasification doubles that; green hydrogen from renewable electrolysis is near zero. Trade volumes under CBAM are currently small but expected to grow.

Primary source

IEA 'The Future of Hydrogen' (2019, updated 2021). The standard reference for production-route intensities.

Secondary source

IRENA for green hydrogen lifecycle assessments. CertifHy for EU hydrogen certification standards.

What to check annually

Hydrogen trade under CBAM is nascent. Watch for EU Delegated Acts on hydrogen methodology and for real-world verification data as the market develops.

Electricity

Electricity Grid Intensity Sources

Electricity CBAM applies primarily to direct imports from neighbouring grids (Western Balkans, Turkey, Ukraine, North Africa). Intra-EU electricity is not subject to CBAM. Grid intensity depends on the generation mix and changes as countries add renewables or retire coal.

Primary source

European Environment Agency (EEA) 'Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation'. Updated annually for EU/EEA states.

Secondary source

Energy Community Secretariat for Western Balkans. IEA country reviews for Turkey, Morocco, and other non-EU grids.

Key variable

Share of coal, gas, and renewables in the generation mix. Kosovo (~0.75 tCO2e/MWh, lignite-dominated) vs Albania (~0.10, hydro-dominated) illustrates the range within the same region.

What to check annually

Grid intensity changes faster than industrial process intensity because of renewable capacity additions. Check EEA and IEA data annually; significant shifts possible over 2-3 year periods.

Source hierarchy

Source Credibility Hierarchy

When multiple sources give different values for the same country and product, we use this hierarchy to select the most authoritative figure.

Tier 1

EU ETS benchmark values published by European Commission. Used for free allocation calculations. These are the regulatory reference point.

Tier 2

IEA sector roadmaps and technology reports. Peer-reviewed methodology, installation-level data, updated every 1-2 years.

Tier 3

Industry association datasets: World Steel Association, GCCA GNR, IAI, IFA. Self-reported but comprehensive coverage (~30-85% of global production).

Tier 4

IEEFA, academic studies, and regional analyses. Useful for country-specific intensity where IEA aggregates are too broad.

Tier 5

National statistics (Chinese NBS, Indian BEE). Used only where no higher-tier source is available.

Regional defaults

When no country-specific data exists, the calculator uses a regional average derived from Tier 2-3 sources. These are clearly labelled in the calculator results.

Origin carbon prices

Carbon Pricing Mechanisms by Country

CBAM Article 9 allows importers to deduct any carbon price demonstrably paid in the country of origin, provided it is not offset by export rebates or subsidies. The calculator auto-detects known carbon pricing mechanisms when a country is selected. Prices are approximate mid-2026 EUR equivalents and should be verified against current trading data for formal CBAM declarations.

EU ETS

~€75/tCO₂e. All EU/EEA/EFTA countries. Not relevant for CBAM (intra-EU trade is exempt) but shown for comparison.

UK ETS

~€45/tCO₂e (~£40). Covers power, industry, aviation. UK CBAM launching 2027. Source: ICE UK Allowance futures.

Switzerland ETS

~€70/tCO₂e. Linked to EU ETS since 2020. Source: Swiss FOEN.

Canada

~€55/tCO₂e (CA$80). Federal carbon price rising CA$15/year. Industry covered via Output-Based Pricing System. Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.

New Zealand ETS

~€30/tCO₂e (NZ$55). Covers forestry, energy, industry. Source: NZ ETS registry.

China national ETS

~€10/tCO₂e (¥70 CNY). Covers power sector only. Does not directly cover steel, cement, or aluminium. Source: Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange.

Korea K-ETS

~€8/tCO₂e (₩12,000 KRW). Covers ~74% of national emissions including steel and cement. Source: Korea Exchange (KRX).

Taiwan carbon fee

~€9/tCO₂e (NT$300). Effective 2025 for large emitters. Source: Taiwan EPA.

Singapore carbon tax

~€17/tCO₂e (S$25 in 2024, rising to S$45-80). Covers large emitters. Source: National Climate Change Secretariat.

South Africa carbon tax

~€10/tCO₂e (R190). Effective rate much lower due to allowances. Source: South African Revenue Service.

Japan carbon tax

~€2/tCO₂e (¥289). Very low national rate. Tokyo metropolitan ETS is higher but local only. Source: Ministry of the Environment.

Mexico carbon tax

~€4/tCO₂e (US$3-5). Applies to fossil fuels. Pilot ETS under development. Source: SEMARNAT.

Colombia carbon tax

~€5/tCO₂e (COP 23,000). Covers fossil fuels. Offsets accepted as alternative. Source: DIAN.

Argentina carbon tax

~€5/tCO₂e. Applies to liquid fuels. Limited scope. Source: AFIP.

Chile Green Tax

~€5/tCO₂e (US$5). Covers large emitters ≥25 MW thermal. Source: SMA Chile.

Indonesia

~€2/tCO₂e (IDR 30,000). Implementation delayed. Coal power sector cap-and-trade pilot ongoing. Source: Ministry of Finance.

Ukraine carbon tax

~€1/tCO₂e (UAH 30). Negligible rate. ETS alignment with EU under negotiation. Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection.

Kazakhstan ETS

~€1/tCO₂e. Operational since 2013 but very low liquidity and traded price. Source: Zhasyl Damu.

No mechanism

India, Turkey, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Morocco, Brazil, Russia, most African and Southeast Asian countries have no mandatory carbon pricing mechanism applicable to CBAM sectors. The CBAM deduction is zero.

Voluntary markets

Several countries operate voluntary carbon credit programmes (e.g. Thailand T-VER, India PAT certificates, various REDD+ schemes). These are NOT deductible under CBAM. Article 9 of the CBAM Regulation requires the carbon price to be mandatory, effectively paid by the producer, and not offset by export rebates or subsidies. Voluntary offsets, carbon credits purchased on the open market, and internal carbon pricing do not qualify.

Pilot / planned ETS

Turkey, Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are at various stages of developing mandatory carbon pricing. These are noted but not included in the calculator until they are operational and produce a verifiable price per tonne of CO₂.

Carbon prices fluctuate. The values above are approximate mid-2026 conversions. For formal CBAM declarations, importers must substantiate the actual carbon price paid using documentation from the origin country's carbon pricing authority. Voluntary offsets and internal carbon prices are explicitly excluded by CBAM Article 9. Prices checked quarterly; next check Q3 2026.

Annual review checklist

Annual Review Checklist

Next review: 2027-01. This checklist guides the annual data refresh.

Step 1

Check IEA World Energy Outlook and any updated sector roadmaps published since last review. Note changes to country-level intensity estimates.

Step 2

Download latest World Steel Association Climate Action data. Compare country-level BF-BOF and EAF intensities to current values in cbam_intensity.json.

Step 3

Check GCCA GNR database for updated cement intensity data by country. Note any clinker ratio changes.

Step 4

Check IAI annual statistics for aluminium intensity by region. Watch for grid decarbonisation shifts in major smelting countries.

Step 5

Check IFA benchmarking data for fertiliser updates. Note any coal-to-gas conversion progress in China.

Step 6

Check EEA electricity GHG intensity data. Update grid intensity for EU neighbours.

Step 7

Verify carbon price presets against current ETS trading levels (China, Korea, UK, Switzerland).

Step 8

Update 'updated' and 'next_review' fields in cbam_intensity.json. Update source_year for any changed entries.

Step 9

Check for CBAM regulatory changes: scope expansion, indirect emissions inclusion for aluminium, new implementing acts.