weighted score 4.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Bangladesh
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Bangladesh-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
5
2024 Hasina ouster following mass protests. Rohingya crisis ongoing with ~1M refugees. Political polarisation high but no active armed conflict. Elections timeline uncertain.
Supplier concentration
3
Garment sector alternatives exist in Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and Ethiopia. Bangladesh is not a sole-source origin for any critical manufactured category. Buyer lock-in is low.
Climate & physical risk
8
Among world's most climate-vulnerable nations. Annual monsoon flooding, cyclone exposure, and sea level rise threatening Chittagong port and delta regions. Germanwatch CRI top 10.
Sanctions exposure
2
Limited direct sanctions. US RAB sanctions (2021) are targeted. No broad trade sanctions. EU EBA access maintained. Low sanctions escalation risk relative to peers.
Policy continuity & property rights
6
2024 political transition creates uncertainty on trade policy, EPZ incentives, and labour law enforcement. Institutional independence weak. Regulatory environment unpredictable.
Political Stability & Conflict
Political Stability & Conflict
- 2024 political crisis
- Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in August 2024 following mass student-led protests. The interim government faces governance challenges including restoring institutional credibility, managing political polarisation, and preparing for elections. Policy continuity for export-oriented sectors remains uncertain.
- Rohingya crisis
- Bangladesh hosts approximately 1 million Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar district. The crisis creates ongoing security, humanitarian, and diplomatic tensions with Myanmar. No durable solution is in sight, placing continued strain on border regions and government resources.
- Garment alternatives
- Bangladesh's garment sector concentration means buyers have viable alternatives — Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Ethiopia — for basic cut-make-trim production. This reduces buyer lock-in and makes supply chain diversification away from Bangladesh operationally feasible in the event of sustained political disruption.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Flood exposure
- Bangladesh is among the world's most climate-vulnerable nations. Annual monsoon flooding affects up to one-third of the country's land area. The low-lying Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta is highly exposed to sea level rise, with projections suggesting significant land loss by mid-century.
- Chittagong port risk
- Chittagong — handling ~90% of Bangladesh's trade — is exposed to cyclone damage and storm surge. Sea level rise threatens long-term port infrastructure viability. The planned Matarbari deep-sea port faces similar coastal exposure.
- Germanwatch CRI
- Bangladesh consistently ranks among the top 10 most climate-affected countries on the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index. Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing, with direct implications for factory operations, logistics, and worker welfare.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- Sanctions exposure
- Bangladesh faces limited direct sanctions. The US imposed targeted sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in December 2021 over extrajudicial killings. No broad trade sanctions are in effect, but the RAB sanctions signal international scrutiny of governance and security force conduct.
- Policy continuity
- The 2024 political transition creates material uncertainty about trade policy, investment incentives, and regulatory frameworks. Export processing zone policies, tax incentives for garment manufacturers, and labour law enforcement are all subject to potential revision under the interim and subsequent elected government.