weighted score 5.0 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Chad
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Chad-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
6
Borders six countries with active conflict or instability. Boko Haram/ISWAP in Lake Chad Basin. 900,000 Sudanese refugees. G5 Sahel counterterrorism framework fractured.
Supplier concentration
5
Oil 76% of exports — extreme single-commodity dependence. Non-oil exports minimal (cotton, livestock, gum arabic). No significant manufacturing base.
Climate & physical risk
6
Lake Chad shrunk ~90%. Severe desertification. Annual flooding displaces hundreds of thousands. One of the hottest countries globally. Chronic food insecurity.
Sanctions exposure
1
No comprehensive sanctions. No broad trade restrictions from US, EU, or UN. Individual targeted sanctions on armed group leaders only.
Policy continuity & property rights
7
Military transition government since 2021. Disputed 2024 election. France military withdrawal 2024 creates security vacuum. Weak rule of law and judicial independence.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Sahel instability
- Chad borders Libya, Sudan, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic — all with active conflict or instability. Boko Haram and ISWAP operate in the Lake Chad Basin. G5 Sahel counterterrorism architecture has fractured following Mali and Burkina Faso withdrawals.
- Sudan crisis spillover
- Approximately 900,000 Sudanese refugees have crossed into eastern Chad since the Sudan civil war began in April 2023. This creates humanitarian pressure, security risks along the border, and strain on already limited infrastructure.
- Military transition
- Mahamat Deby inherited power following his father Idriss Deby's death in April 2021. A transitional military council governs. Elections held in 2024 confirmed Deby as president, but opposition groups contest legitimacy.
- Buyer implication
- Sourcing from Chad carries exposure to regional instability across multiple borders. Transit routes through Cameroon and Nigeria face intermittent security disruption. Long-term supply continuity risk is elevated.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Oil dependence
- Oil accounts for approximately 15% of GDP, 41% of government revenue, and 76% of exports. Esso (ExxonMobil consortium) operates the Doba basin fields. This extreme concentration means any oil sector disruption cascades through the entire economy.
- Limited diversification
- Non-oil exports are minimal — primarily cotton, livestock, and gum arabic. Manufacturing sector is negligible. No significant industrial supply chain exists outside extractives.
- Transit dependency
- As a landlocked country, Chad depends entirely on transit through Cameroon (Douala port) or Nigeria for international trade. The Chad-Cameroon pipeline is the primary oil export route.
- Concentration risk signal
- Extreme single-commodity concentration combined with landlocked geography and regional instability creates a compounding risk profile. Alternative supply sources for Chad-origin goods are readily available from more accessible origins.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Lake Chad crisis
- Lake Chad has shrunk by approximately 90% since the 1960s. This affects 30+ million people across four countries. Desertification is advancing southward, reducing arable land and intensifying conflict over resources.
- Flooding
- Seasonal flooding along the Chari and Logone rivers affects N'Djamena and southern agricultural regions annually. 2022 floods displaced over 340,000 people and damaged critical infrastructure.
- Heat stress
- Chad is one of the hottest countries globally. Northern regions regularly exceed 45°C. Climate projections indicate further temperature increases, threatening agricultural productivity and labour capacity.
- Food insecurity
- Chronic food insecurity affects approximately 6 million people. Climate variability, conflict, and displacement compound food system vulnerability. Poverty rate approximately 45.4%.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- Sanctions status
- Chad is not under comprehensive international sanctions. Individual targeted sanctions apply to some armed group leaders. No broad trade sanctions from US, EU, or UN affect commercial activity.
- Military governance risk
- Military transition government creates policy unpredictability. Constitutional changes, electoral legitimacy disputes, and potential for political instability create a volatile policy environment.
- Foreign military presence
- France withdrew from its longstanding military base in Chad in 2024, ending decades of security partnership. This creates uncertainty about security architecture and potential realignment toward Russia/Wagner Group influence in the region.
- Property rights
- Rule of law is weak. Property rights enforcement is unreliable. Judicial independence is limited. Contract enforcement depends heavily on political relationships rather than institutional frameworks.