weighted score 3.2 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Comoros
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Comoros-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
No active armed conflict. Mayotte territorial dispute with France is diplomatic rather than military. Over 20 coups since 1975 but recent years relatively stable under Assoumani.
Supplier concentration
2
Minimal global supply chain relevance. Vanilla, cloves, and ylang-ylang are niche exports. No critical commodity concentration that would affect global markets.
Climate & physical risk
5
High climate vulnerability as small island state. Active volcano (Mount Karthala). Cyclone exposure. Sea level rise threatens coastal infrastructure and agriculture.
Sanctions exposure
1
No active sanctions from any major jurisdiction. No watch-list status. Clean sanctions profile across US, EU, and UN.
Policy continuity & property rights
5
Over 20 coups/attempted since 1975. Assoumani extended rule via constitutional changes. Policy tied to regime rather than institutions. Property rights enforcement weak.
Political Instability & Concentration
Political Instability & Concentration
- Coup history
- Comoros has experienced over 20 coups or attempted coups since independence in 1975 — one of the highest rates globally. Political instability is endemic and any supply chain commitment requires awareness of sudden governance disruption risk.
- Mayotte dispute
- The territorial dispute with France over Mayotte creates periodic diplomatic friction. France administers Mayotte as a department; Comoros claims sovereignty. This dispute complicates relations with the EU but does not trigger sanctions.
- Economic concentration
- Exports are dominated by vanilla, cloves, and ylang-ylang. Extreme commodity concentration in niche agricultural products creates vulnerability to price volatility and crop failures.
Climate & Policy Continuity
Climate & Policy Continuity
- Climate vulnerability
- Small island archipelago highly vulnerable to cyclones, sea level rise, and volcanic activity (Mount Karthala on Grande Comore is an active volcano). Climate change poses existential risk to agricultural export base.
- Policy continuity
- Azali Assoumani has concentrated executive power through constitutional changes. Policy continuity is tied to the current regime rather than institutional frameworks. Regime change could bring abrupt policy shifts.