weighted score 3.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Côte d’Ivoire
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Côte d’Ivoire-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
Post-2011 stability has held. Sahel spillover risk in northern regions. No active interstate conflict. Regional peacekeeping contributor. Low-to-moderate conflict exposure.
Supplier concentration
6
~40% of global cocoa. Single most concentrated origin for chocolate industry. Any disruption has immediate global price impact. Cashew also significant but less concentrated.
Climate & physical risk
5
Climate change threatening cocoa zones by 2050. Changing rainfall and rising temperatures. Swollen shoot virus pressure increasing. Deforestation reducing ecological resilience.
Sanctions exposure
1
No active sanctions programmes. EU EPA partner. AGOA-eligible. No entity-level restrictions. Low sanctions risk.
Policy continuity & property rights
4
Ouattara succession question (age 83) is the key policy continuity risk. Land tenure system complex and contested. Business environment has improved but transition risk is elevated.
Political Stability & Succession
Political Stability & Succession
- Post-civil war trajectory
- Côte d’Ivoire experienced a devastating civil war (2002–2007) and post-election crisis (2010–2011). Since President Ouattara took office in 2011, political stability has improved significantly. Economic growth has averaged 6–8% annually. However, the 2020 election — in which Ouattara sought a controversial third term — saw localised violence and opposition boycotts.
- Succession question
- President Ouattara is 83 years old. No clear succession plan has been publicly articulated. The question of political transition is the single most significant near-term political risk. Ivorian politics has historically been volatile around electoral transitions.
- Regional security
- Sahel instability is migrating southward. Jihadist attacks in northern Côte d’Ivoire (Kafolo, 2020–2021) have raised concerns about spillover from Mali and Burkina Faso. The northern border region faces elevated security risk.
Supply Concentration & Climate Risk
Supply Concentration & Climate Risk
- Cocoa concentration
- Côte d’Ivoire produces approximately 40% of the world’s cocoa. This makes it the single most concentrated origin for the global chocolate industry. Any disruption — political, climatic, or regulatory — has immediate global price and supply implications.
- Climate threat to cocoa
- Climate change is projected to make significant portions of current cocoa-growing zones unsuitable for production by 2050. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and increased pest pressure (swollen shoot virus) threaten long-term supply stability.
- Diversification limits
- Despite government efforts to diversify into cashew, rubber, and palm oil, the economy and export structure remain heavily cocoa-dependent. Cocoa accounts for roughly 40% of export revenues and employs an estimated 5–6 million people across the value chain.