weighted score 7.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
DR Congo
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for DR Congo-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
9
Active civil war in eastern DRC. M23, ADF, and dozens of armed groups operate across North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri. Highest geopolitical risk score in this index.
Supplier concentration
9
Approximately 70% of global cobalt and 60% of global tantalum. No substitute source exists at comparable scale. Extreme single-country concentration risk for battery and electronics supply chains.
Climate & physical risk
7
Nyiragongo volcano near Goma — one of the most dangerous volcanoes globally. Flooding and tropical storm exposure. Eastern DRC logistics infrastructure extremely vulnerable to physical disruption.
Sanctions exposure
5
EU Conflict Minerals Regulation (2017/821) applies to 3TG. No broad country-level sanctions but conflict-area due diligence obligations create significant compliance burden for importers.
Policy continuity & property rights
9
2018 mining code increased royalties unilaterally. Government exercises limited control over eastern provinces. Mining concessions subject to unpredictable policy changes. Rule of law effectively absent in conflict zones.
Active Conflict & Instability
Active Conflict & Instability
- Eastern DRC conflict
- Active civil war in eastern DRC involving M23, ADF (Allied Democratic Forces), and dozens of other armed groups. UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO has been present since 1999. North Kivu and Ituri provinces remain effectively ungoverned with ongoing mass displacement.
- Ungoverned territory
- The central government in Kinshasa exercises limited control over eastern provinces. Armed groups control mining sites, road networks, and cross-border trade routes. This creates a permanently unstable operating environment for any supply chain activity in the region.
- Humanitarian impact
- Over 6 million internally displaced people — among the highest figures globally. Ongoing armed conflict, ethnic violence, and resource competition drive continuous displacement and humanitarian crisis.
Mineral Concentration & Physical Risk
Mineral Concentration & Physical Risk
- Cobalt concentration
- DR Congo produces approximately 70% of global cobalt. No single alternative source can substitute at scale. This extreme concentration means any disruption to DRC cobalt output — whether conflict, export ban, or regulatory action — has immediate global battery supply chain consequences.
- Tantalum concentration
- DR Congo produces approximately 60% of global tantalum (coltan). Tantalum is essential for capacitors in electronics. Combined with cobalt dominance, DRC holds outsized leverage in critical mineral supply chains.
- Nyiragongo volcano
- Mount Nyiragongo, located near Goma in eastern DRC, is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes in the world. The 2021 eruption displaced hundreds of thousands. Goma is a key logistics hub for eastern DRC mining operations.
Sanctions & Policy Risk
Sanctions & Policy Risk
- EU conflict minerals
- EU Conflict Minerals Regulation (2017/821) applies to 3TG imports from conflict-affected areas. DR Congo is a primary target jurisdiction. Sanctions score of 5 reflects the regulatory framework rather than targeted entity sanctions.
- Policy instability
- Government policy on mining concessions, export taxes, and foreign ownership is unpredictable. The 2018 mining code revision increased royalties and introduced a strategic minerals classification that allows the state to impose additional levies unilaterally.