weighted score 3.2 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Ghana
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Ghana-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
Stable democracy with peaceful power transitions since 1992. No active conflict. Sahel spillover risk in northern border zone is low-probability but monitored by security services.
Supplier concentration
4
World #2 cocoa producer — global cocoa supply is highly concentrated between Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire (~60% of world output). Gold mining is diversified across multiple operators.
Climate & physical risk
5
Cocoa zone temperature and rainfall variability increasing. Some current growing areas projected to become marginal by 2050. Coastal erosion risk to infrastructure. Moderate flood exposure.
Sanctions exposure
1
No US, EU, or UN sanctions. No entities on major sanctions lists. Ghana maintains constructive relationships with Western and non-Western partners alike.
Policy continuity & property rights
3
Democratic transitions have not produced dramatic economic policy shifts. COCOBOD and Minerals Commission provide institutional stability. IMF programme (2023) constrains fiscal policy. Land tenure complexity is a property rights concern.
Political Stability & Governance
Political Stability & Governance
- Democratic record
- Ghana is one of West Africa's most stable democracies. Since 1992, power has transferred peacefully between the NPP and NDC parties through competitive elections. The 2020 and 2024 elections were conducted without significant violence or institutional breakdown.
- Sahel spillover risk
- Northern Ghana borders Burkina Faso and Togo, both experiencing jihadist insurgency spillover from the Sahel. While Ghana has not experienced a major attack, security services have identified cross-border infiltration attempts. The northern border zone represents a low-probability but non-zero security risk.
- No sanctions exposure
- Ghana is not subject to any US, EU, or UN comprehensive sanctions. No Ghanaian entities appear on major sanctions lists. The country maintains constructive diplomatic relationships with both Western and non-Western partners.
Supply Chain Concentration & Climate Risk
Supply Chain Concentration & Climate Risk
- Cocoa concentration
- Ghana is the world's #2 cocoa producer. Global cocoa supply is highly concentrated — Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire together account for approximately 60% of world production. Disruption to Ghanaian cocoa output (weather, disease, policy) has direct global price and availability impact.
- Climate exposure
- Cocoa-growing regions in the forest zone face increasing temperature and rainfall variability. Projections indicate that some current cocoa-suitable land may become marginal by 2050. Coastal erosion affects infrastructure in the Greater Accra and Western regions.
- Policy continuity
- Ghana’s democratic transitions have not produced dramatic shifts in economic policy. COCOBOD’s role in cocoa pricing and marketing is a constant across administrations. Mining sector regulation (Minerals Commission) has been broadly stable. IMF programme (2023) imposes fiscal discipline constraints.