weighted score 3.6 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Guatemala
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Guatemala-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
4
No active international conflicts. High domestic violence and gang activity (MS-13, Barrio 18). Extortion affects business operations. US migration policy creates periodic diplomatic tension.
Supplier concentration
3
Cardamom is #1 globally but niche. Coffee and palm oil are significant but not globally dominant. No critical manufacturing concentration. Agricultural export base is diversified across multiple crops.
Climate & physical risk
5
Volcán de Fuego 2018 eruption. Pacific Ring of Fire seismic exposure. Central American Dry Corridor drought risk. Hurricane Eta/Iota 2020 caused severe damage. High climate vulnerability.
Sanctions exposure
1
No international sanctions on Guatemala. No entity list restrictions. US and EU maintain normal trade relations. Magnitsky-style sanctions on individual corrupt officials do not affect trade flows.
Policy continuity & property rights
5
Arévalo government improving but facing institutional resistance. Land tenure disputes common, particularly affecting indigenous communities. Contract enforcement slow. Policy direction positive but execution uncertain.
Domestic Security & Governance
Domestic Security & Governance
- Domestic violence & gangs
- Guatemala has one of the highest homicide rates in the Western Hemisphere. Gang activity (MS-13, Barrio 18) affects urban areas and transit corridors. Extortion of businesses, including agricultural operations and transport companies, is widespread and represents a direct operational risk for supply chain participants.
- Institutional resistance
- President Arévalo's anti-corruption government (inaugurated January 2024) faces significant resistance from entrenched interests within the judiciary, public ministry, and congress. Reform trajectory is positive but institutional capture remains a material governance risk.
- CICIG legacy
- The 2019 expulsion of CICIG removed the most effective anti-corruption mechanism in Central America. Since CICIG's departure, several prosecutors and judges who worked on high-profile corruption cases have been forced into exile or face prosecution themselves.
Supply Chain Concentration & Climate
Supply Chain Concentration & Climate
- Cardamom concentration
- Guatemala is the world's #1 cardamom exporter, but the product is niche in global trade terms. Production is concentrated in Alta Verapaz among smallholders. While Guatemala dominates global supply, the commodity itself has limited strategic weight compared to coffee or palm oil.
- Volcán de Fuego 2018
- The June 2018 eruption of Volcán de Fuego killed nearly 200 people and displaced thousands. Guatemala sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire with multiple active volcanoes. Seismic and volcanic risk affects agricultural zones in the central highlands and Pacific slope.
- Climate vulnerability
- Guatemala is highly vulnerable to hurricanes, tropical storms, and drought. The Central American Dry Corridor affects subsistence and commercial agriculture in eastern departments. Hurricane Eta and Iota (2020) caused severe damage to infrastructure and agricultural production.