weighted score 3.6 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Guinea-Bissau
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Guinea-Bissau-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
4
No external conflict but severe internal political instability. Multiple coups. Narco-state dynamics create unpredictable governance environment. ECOWAS provides limited external stabilisation.
Supplier concentration
2
Cashew nuts dominate exports but global cashew supply is distributed across West Africa and Vietnam. Guinea-Bissau is not a sole-source for any critical commodity.
Climate & physical risk
4
Coastal vulnerability to sea level rise. Bijagos Archipelago at risk. Seasonal flooding. Saltwater intrusion threatens agricultural land. Climate projections indicate increasing rainfall variability.
Sanctions exposure
1
No active EU, US, or UK sanctions on Guinea-Bissau. No UN Security Council measures currently in force. Individual sanctions on some officials have been applied historically.
Policy continuity & property rights
7
Among the worst policy continuity environments globally. No president has completed a full term. Drug trafficking has corrupted state institutions. Property rights and contract enforcement are unreliable.
Political Instability & Drug Trafficking
Political Instability & Drug Trafficking
- Coup history
- Guinea-Bissau has experienced multiple coups and attempted coups since independence in 1974. No president has completed a full term in office. Military intervention in politics is recurrent and unpredictable.
- Narco-state dynamics
- Guinea-Bissau serves as a major transit point for cocaine trafficking from Latin America to Europe. Drug trafficking networks have penetrated the military, judiciary, and political establishment, creating a parallel governance structure that undermines state authority.
- ECOWAS membership
- Guinea-Bissau is a member of ECOWAS, which has intervened in past political crises. Regional stability frameworks provide some external check on political instability but have not prevented repeated governance breakdowns.
Climate & Policy Continuity
Climate & Policy Continuity
- Sea level rise
- Guinea-Bissau's coastal geography, including the Bijagos Archipelago, is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying agricultural land is at risk from saltwater intrusion, threatening cashew production.
- Flooding risk
- Seasonal flooding affects agricultural areas and urban infrastructure. Climate projections indicate increasing rainfall variability and more intense storm events in the West African coastal zone.
- Policy continuity
- Extreme political instability creates the worst policy continuity environment on this index. No government has maintained consistent policy direction. Regulatory frameworks change with each political transition. Foreign investment frameworks are unreliable.