weighted score 5.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Haiti
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Haiti-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
8
90%+ of Port-au-Prince under gang control. 8,100+ killings in 2025. State has lost territorial control. MSS mission unable to restore order. Humanitarian catastrophe ongoing.
Supplier concentration
3
Haiti is not a critical supplier in any global category. Garment exports are modest and US-focused. No buyer has material supply chain dependence on Haiti.
Climate & physical risk
6
Hurricane belt location. Earthquake fault zone. Forest cover below 2% amplifies all weather damage. 2010 and 2021 earthquakes demonstrated catastrophic vulnerability. Near-zero adaptive capacity.
Sanctions exposure
1
UN and OFAC sanctions target individual gang leaders, not the country broadly. No comprehensive country-level sanctions. Low sanctions exposure for legitimate commerce, though compliance screening required.
Policy continuity & property rights
9
No elected government since 2021. No functional judiciary. Property rights unenforceable in gang-controlled areas. 28% inflation. GDP contracted 7th consecutive year. Policy environment is non-existent rather than unstable.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Gang control
- Over 90% of Port-au-Prince is under the control of armed gangs as of 2025. 8,100+ killings documented in 2025. The state has effectively lost territorial control over its capital and primary economic hub.
- International intervention
- UN-backed Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission led by Kenya deployed but unable to restore state control. Previous MINUSTAH mission (2004-2017) left mixed legacy including cholera outbreak and sexual exploitation scandals.
- Regional instability
- Haiti-Dominican Republic border tensions over migration. DR has built border wall and conducted mass deportations. Haitian diaspora remittances (~30% of GDP) create dependency on US immigration policy.
- Buyer implication
- Sourcing from Haiti exposes buyers to severe operational risk. Physical security of personnel, cargo, and facilities cannot be guaranteed. Insurance costs and security overheads make most commercial operations unviable outside protected export zones.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Export base
- Haiti's export economy is dominated by garment assembly for the US market under HOPE/HELP trade preferences. These preferences expire at end of 2026. Without renewal, Haiti's only significant formal export sector collapses.
- Dependence on aid
- Haiti receives significant humanitarian aid flows. GDP contracted for the 7th consecutive year (-2.7%). 66% of the population lives on less than $3.65/day. Economic activity outside the aid and remittance economy is minimal.
- Agricultural exports
- Historically exported coffee, cocoa, and mangoes but volumes have declined sharply due to deforestation, climate events, and security disruption. No category where Haiti represents a significant share of global supply.
- Concentration risk signal
- Haiti is not a concentration risk in the traditional sense — no buyer depends on Haiti for critical supply. The risk is reputational and compliance-related: association with a country experiencing humanitarian catastrophe.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Hurricane exposure
- Haiti sits in the Caribbean hurricane belt. Hurricane Matthew (2016) killed 500+ and caused $2.8 billion in damage. Extreme deforestation (forest cover below 2%) amplifies flood and landslide damage from any tropical weather event.
- Earthquake risk
- 2010 earthquake killed 220,000+ and caused $7.8 billion in damage. 2021 earthquake killed 2,200+. Haiti sits on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone. Seismic risk is permanent and infrastructure resilience is near zero.
- Food insecurity
- 1.4 million internally displaced. IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) food insecurity affecting over 1 million people. Climate events compound the humanitarian crisis by destroying subsistence agriculture.
- Germanwatch CRI
- Haiti consistently ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally. Combination of extreme hazard exposure and near-zero adaptive capacity.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- Gang sanctions
- UN Security Council sanctions regime targeting Haitian gang leaders (travel bans, asset freezes). US Treasury OFAC has designated multiple gang leaders including Jimmy Cherizier ('Barbecue'). Sanctions compliance required for any financial transactions.
- Political vacuum
- No elected government since assassination of President Moise (July 2021). Transitional Presidential Council formed April 2024 but governance capacity minimal. No elections scheduled. Gang leaders are de facto political actors.
- HOPE/HELP expiry
- US trade preferences for Haitian garments expire end 2026. Without Congressional renewal, the garment sector — Haiti's only significant formal export industry — loses its competitive rationale.
- Policy continuity
- Policy continuity risk is extreme. There is no functional state to provide policy continuity. Any investment or sourcing commitment is subject to complete unpredictability in governance, security, and regulatory conditions.