weighted score 3.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Honduras
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Honduras-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
5
Extreme gang and cartel violence drives one of the highest homicide rates globally. No interstate conflict but internal security environment severely disrupted. Gang territorial control affects business operations.
Supplier concentration
2
Honduras is not a dominant supplier in any global category. Coffee, palm oil, and garments are significant but substitutable. Low concentration risk for buyers.
Climate & physical risk
6
Hurricanes Eta and Iota (2020) caused catastrophic damage. Dry Corridor drought exposure. Infrastructure highly vulnerable to weather events. Recovery from major storms takes years.
Sanctions exposure
1
No comprehensive sanctions. No EU or US country-wide programmes. Individual targeted sanctions on former officials linked to narcotics do not affect general trade.
Policy continuity & property rights
5
Xiomara Castro government represents a political shift. Institutional reform uncertain. Land tenure disputes in Aguán valley are long-standing. Rule of law is weak but no history of expropriation of foreign assets.
Conflict & Security
Conflict & Security
- Gang & cartel violence
- Honduras has historically had one of the highest homicide rates in the world, driven by MS-13, Barrio 18, and Mexican cartel operations. While rates have declined under the Xiomara Castro government (inaugurated January 2022), gang influence on economic activity — including extortion, territorial control, and labour coercion — remains pervasive.
- Political transition
- Xiomara Castro's Libre party government represents a leftward shift after 12 years of National Party rule. Her husband, former President Manuel Zelaya, was deposed in a 2009 coup. Political polarisation remains high and institutional reform progress is uncertain.
- Sanctions status
- Honduras is not subject to comprehensive international sanctions. No EU or US country-wide sanctions programmes are in force. Individual targeted sanctions exist against specific former officials linked to drug trafficking.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Hurricane exposure
- Hurricanes Eta and Iota struck Honduras in November 2020 within two weeks, causing catastrophic flooding and landslides. An estimated 3 million people were affected. Agricultural zones, road infrastructure, and bridge networks suffered extensive damage — with recovery still ongoing years later.
- Recurring climate events
- Honduras sits in the Central American Dry Corridor, exposing subsistence and commercial agriculture to recurring drought. Conversely, Atlantic hurricane season (June–November) brings annual flood risk to northern lowlands and banana/palm oil growing areas.
- Infrastructure vulnerability
- Road and bridge infrastructure is chronically underfunded and highly vulnerable to weather events. A single major hurricane can sever inland supply routes for weeks, creating acute logistics disruption for export-oriented sectors.