weighted score 2.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Jordan
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Jordan-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
4
Borders Gaza/Israel, Syria, and Iraq — direct exposure to regional conflicts. Jordan itself is stable but proximity to active conflict zones creates spillover risk for supply chain planning.
Supplier concentration
2
Small economy with narrow export base. No global supply chain concentration risk — Jordan is not a dominant supplier in any critical category. Disruption to Jordan sourcing is substitutable.
Climate & physical risk
4
Extreme water scarcity — one of the most water-stressed countries globally. Arid climate with limited agricultural capacity. Climate change projections indicate worsening water availability.
Sanctions exposure
1
No international sanctions. Strong Western ally. No OFAC, EU, or UN sanctions programmes target Jordan. Lowest sanctions risk category.
Policy continuity & property rights
3
Stable monarchy since 1999. Property rights respected. Foreign investment framework established. Policy continuity is high by regional standards. Moderate bureaucratic friction but no expropriation risk.
Conflict & Regional Instability
Conflict & Regional Instability
- Gaza border proximity
- Jordan shares a border with Israel and the Palestinian Territories. The ongoing Gaza conflict creates direct spillover risk — refugee flows, cross-border tensions, and periodic border closures affect logistics and economic stability.
- Syria & Iraq borders
- Jordan borders both Syria and Iraq. The Syrian civil war (2011–present) and post-conflict Iraq instability have generated massive refugee inflows. Approximately 30% of Jordan's population are refugees or displaced persons, placing extreme pressure on water, housing, and public services.
- Refugee population
- Jordan hosts over 700,000 registered UNHCR refugees (predominantly Syrian) plus hundreds of thousands of unregistered displaced persons. This represents one of the highest per-capita refugee burdens globally and is a defining feature of Jordan's social and economic landscape.
Stability, Resources & Sanctions
Stability, Resources & Sanctions
- Political stability
- Jordan is a constitutional monarchy under King Abdullah II (reigning since 1999). The monarchy provides a stability anchor in an otherwise volatile region. Political transitions are managed, and the security apparatus is effective. Jordan is a key Western ally in the Middle East.
- Water scarcity
- Jordan is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. Per-capita renewable water resources are far below the absolute scarcity threshold. Climate change projections indicate further deterioration. Water scarcity is a binding constraint on industrial expansion and population growth.
- Sanctions exposure
- Jordan is not subject to international sanctions. The country maintains strong diplomatic relationships with the US, EU, and Gulf states. No OFAC, EU, or UN sanctions programmes target Jordan. Low sanctions risk for sourcing operations.