weighted score 4.2 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Madagascar
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Madagascar-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
No active armed conflict. However, coup history (2002, 2009) and fragile governance create latent political instability risk. Rural banditry (dahalo) in the south is a localised security concern.
Supplier concentration
5
Madagascar supplies ~80% of global vanilla — extreme single-commodity concentration. Nickel/cobalt (Ambatovy) and cloves are secondary but not globally dominant. Overall concentration risk is commodity-specific.
Climate & physical risk
6
High cyclone exposure (Indian Ocean cyclone belt). Cyclone Batsirai (2022) caused severe damage. Southern drought is recurring. Sea-level rise threatens coastal infrastructure.
Sanctions exposure
1
No active international sanctions. No entity list designations. Low sanctions risk profile. 2009 coup-era suspensions were lifted following democratic elections.
Policy continuity & property rights
6
Two coups in seven years (2002, 2009) demonstrate policy discontinuity risk. Land tenure is insecure. Mining concession stability is uncertain. Vanilla export regulations change unpredictably.
Political Stability & Governance
Political Stability & Governance
- Coup history
- Madagascar experienced unconstitutional changes of government in 2002 and 2009. The 2009 coup led to international sanctions and suspension from SADC and the African Union. While elections have been held since 2013, governance remains fragile and institutional capacity is weak.
- Governance fragility
- State capacity is extremely limited outside Antananarivo. Rural areas — including the SAVA vanilla region and southern mining zones — have minimal government presence. Policy enforcement is inconsistent and judicial independence is compromised.
- Buyer implication
- Political instability risk is latent rather than active. No current armed conflict, but the precedent of two coups in seven years means that long-term supplier investment decisions carry elevated regime-change risk. Export disruption scenarios should be part of category planning for vanilla and mining commodities.
Concentration, Climate & Physical Risk
Concentration, Climate & Physical Risk
- Vanilla concentration
- Madagascar supplies approximately 80% of global vanilla. This extreme single-country concentration means any disruption — cyclone, political crisis, export ban — has immediate global price and supply impact. There is no rapid substitute at scale.
- Cyclone exposure
- Madagascar is one of the most cyclone-exposed countries in the Indian Ocean. Cyclone season (November–April) regularly causes severe damage to vanilla plantations, infrastructure, and port operations. Cyclone Batsirai (2022) displaced over 100,000 people and damaged key agricultural regions.
- Climate vulnerability
- Southern Madagascar experiences recurring drought and food insecurity. Sea-level rise threatens coastal infrastructure including the port of Toamasina. The combination of cyclone and drought exposure makes Madagascar one of the most climate-vulnerable sourcing origins globally.