weighted score 4.6 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Mozambique
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Mozambique-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
6
Cabo Delgado insurgency active since 2017. SADC and Rwandan military intervention ongoing. Over 1 million displaced. TotalEnergies USD 20B+ LNG project suspended due to security situation.
Supplier concentration
3
Mozambique is not a significant concentration risk for global supply chains. Limited manufacturing base means low systemic dependency. LNG sector is the primary concentration exposure for energy buyers.
Climate & physical risk
6
Cyclone Idai (2019) caused USD 3B+ damage. Long Indian Ocean coastline highly cyclone-exposed. Flood-prone river valleys. Climate change projections indicate increasing extreme weather frequency.
Sanctions exposure
2
No significant sanctions exposure. Mozambique is not subject to comprehensive sanctions programmes. Individual-level sanctions may apply in connection with hidden debt scandal actors.
Policy continuity & property rights
6
Frelimo one-party dominance since 1975. Disputed 2024 election with post-election violence. Hidden debt scandal (2016) demonstrated systemic governance opacity. Property rights framework weak.
Conflict & Security
Conflict & Security
- Cabo Delgado insurgency
- Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado province has been active since 2017. The conflict has displaced over 1 million people and caused significant loss of life. SADC and Rwandan military forces deployed since 2021 have reduced but not eliminated the threat.
- LNG project impact
- TotalEnergies suspended its USD 20B+ Mozambique LNG onshore project in April 2021 following an attack on the nearby town of Palma. The suspension remains in effect. Coral South FLNG (offshore, ENI-operated) continues to produce but onshore megaproject restart is contingent on sustained security improvement.
- Buyer implication
- Northern Mozambique is effectively inaccessible for commercial operations. Supply chains touching Cabo Delgado province face physical security risk. LNG-dependent investment timelines remain highly uncertain.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Cyclone exposure
- Cyclone Idai (March 2019) devastated Beira and central Mozambique, killing over 1,000 people and causing USD 3B+ in damage. Cyclone Kenneth struck northern Mozambique weeks later. Mozambique's long Indian Ocean coastline makes it one of the most cyclone-exposed countries in Africa.
- Flood risk
- Low-lying coastal areas and river valleys (Zambezi, Limpopo, Save) are highly flood-prone. Climate change projections indicate increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across southern Africa.
- Agricultural vulnerability
- Subsistence and smallholder agriculture — the livelihood base for most of the population — is highly exposed to drought, flooding, and cyclone damage. Climate shocks directly affect agricultural commodity supply reliability.
Political Stability & Policy
Political Stability & Policy
- Frelimo dominance
- The ruling Frelimo party has governed since independence in 1975. Political space for opposition is constrained. The October 2024 general election was disputed, with opposition alleging widespread fraud and significant post-election protests and violence across major cities.
- Policy continuity risk
- Frelimo one-party dominance creates policy predictability in some areas but also concentrates risk. The 2016 hidden debt scandal demonstrated that major fiscal decisions can be made without parliamentary or public oversight.