weighted score 6.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Myanmar
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Myanmar-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
9
Active civil war since February 2021 coup. Armed conflict in multiple states. Military airstrikes on civilian targets. Over 2 million internally displaced. Highest conflict score on this index.
Supplier concentration
3
Narrow supply base — garments only significant export sector. No critical mineral or component dependencies for Western buyers. Low concentration risk because Myanmar is not a significant source for most categories.
Climate & physical risk
7
Category 5 Cyclone Mocha (2023) devastated Rakhine. Among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally (Germanwatch CRI). Monsoon flooding annual. Zero climate adaptation capacity under military rule.
Sanctions exposure
6
EU, US, and UK targeted sanctions on military leaders and entities (MEHL, MEC). Arms embargoes. Financial transaction restrictions. Targeted rather than comprehensive, but risk of expansion.
Policy continuity & property rights
9
Military junta — no rule of law, no independent judiciary, no functioning parliament. Policy by military decree. No property rights for foreign investors. Among the worst governance environments globally.
Conflict & Civil War
Conflict & Civil War
- 2021 coup
- The military (Tatmadaw) seized power on 1 February 2021, overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup triggered nationwide protests, a Civil Disobedience Movement, and armed resistance that has escalated into full-scale civil war across multiple states and regions.
- Active combat zones
- Armed conflict is ongoing in Chin, Kachin, Kayah (Karenni), Karen (Kayin), Mon, Rakhine, Sagaing, Magway, and Shan states. Resistance forces — including ethnic armed organisations and People's Defence Forces (PDFs) — control significant territory. The military has lost control of large parts of the country.
- Humanitarian crisis
- Over 2 million internally displaced people. The military has conducted documented airstrikes on civilian targets, arson of villages, and mass detentions. The UN has described the situation as a humanitarian catastrophe.
Sanctions & Climate Exposure
Sanctions & Climate Exposure
- EU/US/UK sanctions
- The EU, US, and UK have imposed targeted sanctions on military leaders, military-linked entities, and conglomerates (MEHL, MEC). Arms embargoes are in force. Financial sanctions restrict transactions with designated military entities. Sanctions score: 6 — targeted rather than comprehensive, but expanding.
- Policy continuity
- Military junta — no rule of law, no independent judiciary, no functioning parliament. Policy is determined by military decree. No property rights protection for foreign investors. Policy continuity score: 9.
- Cyclone Mocha (2023)
- Category 5 Cyclone Mocha struck Rakhine State in May 2023 — one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal. Devastated Sittwe and surrounding areas. Exposed extreme vulnerability of displaced Rohingya communities and inadequate disaster response capacity under military rule.
- Climate vulnerability
- Myanmar is among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally (Germanwatch CRI). Cyclone exposure in coastal Rakhine and Ayeyarwady. Monsoon flooding affects central plains annually. Climate adaptation capacity near zero under current governance.