weighted score 3.6 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Nepal
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Nepal-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
No active armed conflict. Maoist insurgency ended 2006. Stable democratic transition, though political fragmentation persists. Low conflict risk for sourcing operations.
Supplier concentration
2
Very small manufacturing base — negligible global market share in any category. Supplier concentration risk is low because Nepal is not a critical-mass origin for any product category.
Climate & physical risk
7
Extreme earthquake risk (2015 Gorkha earthquake — 9,000 deaths). Annual monsoon flooding and landslides. Glacial lake outburst flood risk increasing. Among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally.
Sanctions exposure
1
No international sanctions. Not on any OFAC, EU, or UN sanctions lists. No export control restrictions. Minimal sanctions risk.
Policy continuity & property rights
5
Frequent government changes create policy uncertainty. Property rights framework exists but enforcement is inconsistent. Foreign investment regulations are evolving.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Earthquake exposure
- Nepal sits on the India-Eurasia tectonic boundary. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake killed approximately 9,000 people and caused catastrophic infrastructure damage. Seismic risk to manufacturing facilities and transport corridors is extreme and ongoing.
- Flood & landslide risk
- Monsoon flooding and landslides are annual events affecting road networks, border crossings, and supply chain corridors. The landlocked geography means a single landslide on the Kathmandu-Birgunj highway can halt trade for days.
- Climate vulnerability
- Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) present a long-term risk as Himalayan glaciers retreat. Nepal ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally. Climate score of 7 reflects extreme physical risk.
Political Stability & Policy Continuity
Political Stability & Policy Continuity
- Conflict history
- The Maoist insurgency ended in 2006 with a comprehensive peace agreement. Nepal transitioned to a federal democratic republic in 2008. No active armed conflict — geopolitical conflict score of 3 reflects low current conflict risk.
- Government stability
- Nepal has had frequent changes of government since the transition to democracy — multiple prime ministers in rapid succession. Policy continuity score of 5 reflects this instability, which creates uncertainty for long-term supplier investment.
- Sanctions exposure
- Nepal is not subject to international sanctions. No OFAC or EU restrictive measures apply. Sanctions score of 1 reflects minimal exposure.