weighted score 5.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Niger
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Niger-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
7
Military junta since July 2023. Sahel Alliance with Mali and Burkina Faso. ECOWAS withdrawal. French and US forces expelled. Wagner/Africa Corps presence. Jihadist insurgency in border regions.
Supplier concentration
4
Historically significant uranium producer but nationalisation has disrupted supply. Not a dominant global supplier in other categories. EU diversifying uranium sources away from Niger.
Climate & physical risk
6
One of the hottest countries on earth. Sahel desertification advancing. Chronic food insecurity. Extremely low adaptive capacity. Seasonal flooding along Niger River.
Sanctions exposure
2
EU targeted sanctions on junta members. Development aid partially suspended. No comprehensive trade sanctions. EBA trade preferences maintained. Secondary sanctions risk from Wagner presence.
Policy continuity & property rights
8
Military junta with no transition timeline. Somair uranium mine nationalised June 2025. Foreign arbitration initiated. No independent judiciary. Foreign investment protections non-functional.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Military coup
- The Nigerien military seized power in July 2023, ousting President Bazoum. The junta — the Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP) — has resisted international pressure to restore civilian rule.
- ECOWAS withdrawal
- Niger left ECOWAS in January 2025 alongside Mali and Burkina Faso, forming the Sahel Alliance (Alliance des Etats du Sahel). This removes Niger from the ECOWAS trade and security framework.
- Western expulsion
- French military forces expelled in 2023. US forces withdrew from Air Base 201 in Agadez. UN peacekeeping presence reduced. Wagner Group / Africa Corps presence confirmed.
- Buyer implication
- Niger is effectively isolated from Western-aligned security and economic frameworks. Uranium supply chains are directly affected by nationalisation. Any sourcing relationship requires navigating junta-controlled regulatory environment.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Uranium
- Niger is historically one of the world's top uranium producers. The Somair mine (operated by Orano/formerly Areva) was nationalised in June 2025. Approximately 1,000 tonnes of yellowcake uranium remain frozen at Niamey airport, subject to export disputes.
- EU dependency
- Niger was a significant uranium supplier to France's nuclear energy sector. Nationalisation and export freezes have forced EU nuclear operators to accelerate diversification to Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia sources.
- Other exports
- Gold (artisanal and industrial), livestock, cowpeas, and onions. Limited manufacturing base. Economy heavily dependent on extractives and subsistence agriculture.
- Concentration risk signal
- For uranium buyers, Niger's nationalisation creates a material supply disruption. For other product categories, Niger is not a significant global supplier and concentration risk is low.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Sahel climate
- Niger is one of the hottest countries on earth. Sahel zone climate with extreme heat, low and erratic rainfall, and advancing desertification. Climate change is accelerating these trends.
- Food insecurity
- Chronic food insecurity affects millions. Rainfall variability directly impacts agricultural output. Lake Chad basin shrinkage affects water availability in the southeast.
- Flooding
- Despite aridity, seasonal flooding along the Niger River causes recurring displacement and infrastructure damage. Flash flooding in urban areas is increasing.
- Germanwatch CRI
- Niger ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally. Extremely low adaptive capacity compounds physical climate risk.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- EU sanctions
- EU imposed targeted sanctions following the July 2023 coup, including travel bans and asset freezes on junta members. Development aid partially suspended. ECOWAS sanctions were in place until Niger's withdrawal in January 2025.
- Uranium nationalisation
- The Somair uranium mine was nationalised in June 2025. Orano (France) has initiated international arbitration. GoviEx Uranium (Canada) also pursuing arbitration over its Madaouela project. This sets a precedent for foreign asset seizure.
- Wagner / Africa Corps
- Russian Wagner Group / Africa Corps military presence confirmed. This aligns Niger with Russia's Sahel strategy and creates potential secondary sanctions risk for Western companies operating in-country.
- Policy continuity
- Military junta rule with no transition timeline. Nationalisation of strategic assets signals willingness to expropriate. No independent judiciary. Foreign investment protection frameworks effectively non-functional.