weighted score 6.0 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Pakistan
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Pakistan-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
8
Active Kashmir border tensions with nuclear-armed India. Internal insurgency in Balochistan. TTP terrorism across multiple provinces. Multiple military operations ongoing.
Supplier concentration
4
Pakistan holds ~20% global market share in surgical instruments (Sialkot cluster). Significant but not monopoly-level textile export share.
Climate & physical risk
8
2022 floods submerged one-third of the country — $30 billion damage, 1,700 deaths. Recurring monsoon flooding and extreme heat stress. Among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally.
Sanctions exposure
3
No comprehensive country-level sanctions. Some entity-level restrictions related to nuclear proliferation networks. Not trade-relevant for most commercial sourcing.
Policy continuity & property rights
7
Four prime ministers since 2018. Military influence in civilian governance. Property rights nominally protected but enforcement inconsistent. Frequent policy reversals on trade and tax.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- India-Pakistan tensions
- Kashmir remains one of the world's most militarised borders. Both countries are nuclear-armed. The 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis demonstrated how quickly tensions can escalate. Trade between the two countries is effectively suspended.
- Internal security
- Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to conduct attacks across multiple provinces. Balochistan separatist insurgency affects infrastructure projects including CPEC corridors. Security costs add to supply chain operating expenses.
- CPEC and China alignment
- The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) represents ~$62 billion in Chinese investment. This deep economic relationship with China creates potential secondary sanctions exposure if US-China tensions escalate further.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- 2022 floods
- Catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2022 submerged approximately one-third of the country. 33 million people affected. $30 billion in estimated damage. Agricultural and textile production severely disrupted for months.
- Recurring exposure
- Pakistan faces annual monsoon flooding risk concentrated in Sindh and Punjab — the same provinces where textile manufacturing is concentrated. Heat stress is increasing, with temperatures exceeding 50°C in parts of Sindh.
- Infrastructure vulnerability
- Road and rail infrastructure is highly vulnerable to flood damage. Karachi port operations are affected by monsoon-season disruptions. Power grid reliability further deteriorates during extreme weather events.