weighted score 3.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Peru
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Peru-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
No active armed conflict. Shining Path remnants in VRAEM coca region present negligible supply chain risk. No international territorial disputes affecting trade.
Supplier concentration
4
World's #2 copper producer — global supply chains materially exposed. Silver and zinc also significant. Concentration risk in mining sector; agricultural exports more diversified.
Climate & physical risk
5
High El Nino vulnerability — coastal flooding and agricultural disruption during strong events. Pacific Ring of Fire earthquake exposure. 2017 Coastal El Nino caused billions in damage.
Sanctions exposure
1
No US, EU, or UN sanctions on Peru. No entity list restrictions. No sanctions-related trade barriers. Clean sanctions profile.
Policy continuity & property rights
4
Six presidents in five years (2018-2023). High political instability but institutional frameworks (central bank, judiciary) have shown resilience. Mining contracts generally honoured despite political turnover.
Political Stability & Conflict
Political Stability & Conflict
- Conflict status
- Peru has no active armed conflict. The Shining Path insurgency was effectively defeated in the 1990s, though remnant factions operate in the VRAEM coca-growing region. No material supply chain disruption from armed conflict.
- Political instability
- Peru has experienced six presidents in five years (2018-2023). President Castillo was removed and arrested in December 2022 after attempting to dissolve Congress. Recurring protests, road blockades, and states of emergency — particularly in southern highland regions — create logistics disruption risk.
- Social conflict
- Mining-related social conflicts are the primary source of supply chain disruption. Community opposition to mining projects (Las Bambas copper, Tia Maria copper) has caused documented production stoppages and road blockades affecting mineral exports.
Supply Chain Concentration & Climate Risk
Supply Chain Concentration & Climate Risk
- Copper concentration
- Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer. Global supply chains for electronics, construction, and energy transition are materially exposed to Peruvian copper output. Any sustained disruption — from social conflict, regulatory changes, or natural disaster — would affect global copper markets.
- El Nino exposure
- Peru is one of the countries most directly affected by El Nino events. Coastal flooding, agricultural disruption, and infrastructure damage during strong El Nino years (e.g., 2017 Coastal El Nino) have caused billions in economic losses and disrupted agricultural and mining supply chains.
- Earthquake risk
- Peru sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire. Major seismic events are a recurring risk — the 2007 Pisco earthquake (magnitude 8.0) caused significant infrastructure damage. Port and road infrastructure in seismic zones carries physical disruption risk for supply chains.