weighted score 6.8 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Russia
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Russia-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
9
Active war in Ukraine since February 2022. NATO confrontation. Military spending up 300%. Nuclear sabre-rattling. Highest geopolitical conflict score — active major war with no resolution pathway.
Supplier concentration
5
Major global supplier of palladium (~40%), enriched uranium (~35%), titanium, wheat, and fertilisers. Energy exports redirected but critical material dependencies persist for some buyers.
Climate & physical risk
3
Permafrost thaw threatening Arctic infrastructure. Intensifying Siberian wildfires. Northern Sea Route opening. Physical risks moderate relative to geopolitical and sanctions exposure.
Sanctions exposure
9
Comprehensive EU/US sanctions covering energy, finance, technology, transport. SWIFT disconnection. Oil price cap. Secondary sanctions risk. Maximum sanctions exposure on this index.
Policy continuity & property rights
8
Putin regime consolidating authoritarian control. Foreign assets seized and nationalised. Economic data suppressed. VAT raised to 22%. No property rights protection for foreign entities.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Ukraine war
- Full-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022. War of attrition with no resolution in sight. NATO expansion triggered (Finland, Sweden accession). Military spending up 300% since 2021. GDP growth slowed to ~1% in 2025 after wartime boom.
- NATO confrontation
- Direct military confrontation with NATO avoided but hybrid warfare ongoing — cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, GPS jamming in Baltic and Nordic airspace. Nuclear sabre-rattling periodic.
- Energy weaponisation
- Nord Stream pipelines destroyed (2022). Russia redirected gas exports to China (Power of Siberia). EU reduced Russian gas dependency from ~40% to under 15%. Remaining pipeline flows via Ukraine ceased January 2025.
- Buyer implication
- Any sourcing relationship with Russian entities carries maximum reputational and legal risk. Comprehensive sanctions make legitimate trade with Russia effectively impossible for EU and US buyers.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Energy dominance
- Russia holds ~6% of global oil reserves and was Europe's primary gas supplier pre-2022. Oil exports now redirected to India, China, and Turkey at Urals crude discount of $20+/barrel. Rosneft profits down 70%.
- Critical materials
- Major producer of palladium (~40% global), enriched uranium (~35% global supply for nuclear fuel), titanium, nickel, and aluminium. Some of these materials remain unsanctioned due to lack of alternatives.
- Agricultural exports
- World's largest wheat exporter. Fertiliser exports (potash, ammonia, urea) significant globally. Agricultural commodities partially exempted from sanctions but shipping and insurance restrictions limit trade.
- Substitution difficulty
- Palladium and enriched uranium have limited alternative sources. Titanium substitution from Kazakhstan and other sources is progressing but incomplete. Full decoupling from Russian critical materials is a multi-year process.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Permafrost thaw
- Arctic permafrost thaw accelerating, threatening pipeline and industrial infrastructure across northern Russia. Norilsk diesel spill (2020) was linked to permafrost degradation of storage tank foundations.
- Arctic shipping
- Northern Sea Route opening due to Arctic ice retreat. Russia investing in icebreaker fleet and Arctic military infrastructure. New shipping routes do not offset wartime trade disruption.
- Wildfire exposure
- Siberian wildfires intensifying annually. 2021 season burned area exceeded 17 million hectares. Smoke pollution affects major cities and agricultural regions.
- Infrastructure vulnerability
- Wartime damage to Ukrainian infrastructure is well-documented. Russian domestic infrastructure showing strain from sanctions-induced shortage of maintenance parts and materials.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- EU sanctions
- 14+ rounds of EU sanctions since February 2022. Covers energy, finance, technology, transport, luxury goods, and individuals. Import bans on oil, coal, steel, gold, diamonds, and wood. SWIFT disconnection for major banks.
- US sanctions
- Comprehensive OFAC sanctions on Russian financial institutions, energy companies, defence sector, and individuals. Secondary sanctions risk for third-country entities facilitating Russian trade.
- Oil price cap
- G7/EU price cap of $60/barrel on Russian crude. Shadow fleet of aging tankers operating outside Western insurance. Price cap enforcement increasingly challenged by evasion schemes.
- Policy continuity risk
- Putin regime shows no signs of policy reversal. VAT raised to 22%. Military-industrial mobilisation consuming increasing share of GDP. Economic data publication suspended. Authoritarian consolidation accelerating.