weighted score 5.2 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Somalia
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Somalia-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
8
Al-Shabaab insurgency with 155+ IED attacks in first 5 months of 2025. No functioning central state across much of the country. Somaliland and Puntland operate semi-autonomously. Decades of continuous conflict.
Supplier concentration
3
Negligible supply chain relevance to EU buyers. Livestock exports go primarily to Gulf states. No manufactured goods export capacity. Indirect exposure risk through re-exports only.
Climate & physical risk
5
Worst drought in 40 years (2021-2023). Alternating drought-flood cycles intensifying. Over half the population requires humanitarian assistance. Near-zero climate adaptation capacity.
Sanctions exposure
2
UN arms embargo and charcoal ban. Al-Shabaab FTO designation creates counter-terrorism financing obligations. Targeted individual sanctions. No comprehensive trade embargo.
Policy continuity & property rights
8
70% of federal budget from foreign donors. Government authority limited to major urban centres. Al-Shabaab parallel governance system. Property rights unenforceable across most territory.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Al-Shabaab insurgency
- Al-Shabaab controls large rural areas of south-central Somalia and conducts sustained IED and assault operations — 155+ IED attacks in the first five months of 2025 alone. The group generates over $150M/yr in revenue through taxation, extortion, and charcoal trade.
- State fragility
- No functioning central state across much of the country. Federal member states operate semi-autonomously. Somaliland (northwest) functions as a de facto independent state but lacks international recognition. Puntland (northeast) maintains separate security forces.
- Regional dynamics
- Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti maintain military presence or buffer zone operations. Turkey provides military training and has a base in Mogadishu. UAE has invested in Berbera port (Somaliland). These competing external interests add complexity to an already fragmented political landscape.
- Buyer implication
- Somalia is effectively unsourceable for compliance-conscious buyers. The only commercially relevant export is livestock, which operates through informal clan-based networks with zero traceability.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Livestock
- Livestock accounts for approximately 60% of Somalia's foreign exchange earnings. Exports are primarily to Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman). The trade operates through clan-based networks with minimal formal documentation or traceability.
- Charcoal
- Charcoal production and export is banned under UN Security Council resolutions because it funds Al-Shabaab. Despite the ban, illegal charcoal trade continues, primarily through Kismayo port to Gulf states.
- Fishing
- Somalia has one of Africa's longest coastlines but the fishing sector is underdeveloped. IUU fishing by foreign fleets is endemic. No domestic fisheries certification or traceability infrastructure exists.
- Concentration risk signal
- Somalia has negligible supply chain relevance to EU buyers. The primary risk is indirect — through livestock re-exported via Gulf states or charcoal entering supply chains through third countries.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Drought
- Somalia experienced its worst drought in 40 years in 2021-2023, causing widespread livestock deaths and displacement. The Horn of Africa drought cycle is intensifying due to climate change.
- Flooding
- Paradoxically, Somalia also faces severe flash flooding — the Shabelle and Juba rivers regularly overflow, destroying crops and displacing communities. Climate variability creates alternating drought-flood cycles.
- Food insecurity
- Recurrent famine conditions. Over half the population requires humanitarian assistance. Climate stress, conflict, and displacement create compounding vulnerability.
- Germanwatch CRI
- Somalia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally. Climate adaptation capacity is near zero due to state fragility and ongoing conflict.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- UN sanctions
- UN arms embargo on Somalia. Charcoal export ban. Targeted sanctions on Al-Shabaab leaders and associates. UN Monitoring Group reports regularly on sanctions violations.
- US sanctions
- Al-Shabaab designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity. Any financial transaction linked to Al-Shabaab triggers US counter-terrorism financing obligations.
- EU sanctions
- EU arms embargo. Targeted sanctions on individuals threatening peace and stability. EU naval operation (EUNAVFOR Atalanta) patrols Somali waters for piracy and arms trafficking.
- Policy continuity
- 70% of federal budget from foreign donors. Government authority does not extend beyond major urban centres. Al-Shabaab operates a parallel governance and taxation system. Policy continuity is effectively zero outside Mogadishu and select state capitals.