weighted score 6.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
South Sudan
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for South Sudan-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
9
Active civil conflict with renewed clashes in March 2025. Sudan war spillover threatens oil pipeline. Six conflict-affected border states. One of the highest conflict risk profiles globally.
Supplier concentration
6
Oil is 80% of GDP but South Sudan is not a significant supplier of any non-oil commodity. Concentration risk is extreme within its own economy but low for global supply chains outside petroleum.
Climate & physical risk
5
Severe annual flooding and drought cycles. Over 7 million face acute food insecurity. No climate-resilient infrastructure. But limited relevance as a sourcing origin reduces practical exposure for buyers.
Sanctions exposure
3
UN, US, and EU targeted sanctions on individuals and entities. Arms embargo. But sanctions are targeted — not comprehensive economy-wide restrictions. Oil exports continue.
Policy continuity & property rights
9
234% inflation FY25. Civil servants 8-13 months salary arrears. Governance driven by patronage. Property rights unenforceable. TI CPI 9/100 — joint lowest globally.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Civil conflict
- South Sudan gained independence in 2011 and descended into civil war in 2013. The 2018 peace agreement remains fragile. Renewed clashes in March 2025 demonstrate that armed conflict risk is persistent and high. Multiple armed factions operate across the country.
- Sudan spillover
- The Sudan civil war (from April 2023) directly impacts South Sudan through refugee flows, disruption to the oil pipeline transit route through Sudan, and cross-border armed group activity. South Sudan's economic lifeline — oil exports via Port Sudan — is vulnerable to Sudan conflict escalation.
- Regional instability
- South Sudan borders six countries, several with their own instability (Sudan, DRC, CAR). The Great Lakes region remains one of the most conflict-affected areas globally. Cross-border displacement and armed group movement is continuous.
- Buyer implication
- Active conflict zone with no realistic prospect of stabilisation in the near term. Any sourcing engagement requires conflict-affected area due diligence frameworks. Oil is the only significant export and is itself subject to conflict financing scrutiny.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Oil dependency
- Oil accounts for approximately 80% of GDP and nearly all export revenue. Production of approximately 157,000 bpd is well below pre-war capacity. The economy has effectively no diversification.
- Pipeline dependency
- All oil exports transit via a single pipeline through Sudan to Port Sudan. This creates an acute single-point-of-failure. The Sudan civil war has periodically threatened this route. No alternative export infrastructure exists.
- Import dependency
- South Sudan imports virtually all manufactured goods, most food, and all fuel products. Import routes through Uganda and Kenya are the primary supply lines. Domestic manufacturing capacity is negligible.
- Concentration risk signal
- Extreme concentration in a single commodity exported via a single route through a conflict-affected neighbouring country. This represents one of the highest concentration risk profiles on this index.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Flooding
- South Sudan experiences severe annual flooding affecting hundreds of thousands of people. The Sudd wetland region is particularly vulnerable. Flooding destroys crops, displaces populations, and cuts road access for months.
- Drought
- Alternating drought-flood cycles drive food insecurity. Climate change is intensifying both extremes. Agricultural production — already minimal — is severely disrupted by climate variability.
- Food insecurity
- Climate shocks compound conflict-driven food insecurity. Over 7 million people face acute food insecurity. South Sudan is one of the most food-insecure countries globally.
- Infrastructure vulnerability
- Virtually no climate-resilient infrastructure. Unpaved roads become impassable during rainy season. No flood protection systems. Climate adaptation capacity is effectively zero.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- UN sanctions
- UN Security Council sanctions regime (Resolution 2206) includes arms embargo, travel bans, and asset freezes on designated individuals. Extended multiple times.
- US sanctions
- US Treasury OFAC sanctions target South Sudanese officials and entities involved in conflict, corruption, and human rights abuses. Multiple designations under Executive Order 13664.
- EU sanctions
- EU targeted sanctions on individuals under Council Decision 2015/740/CFSP. Arms embargo in force. Financial restrictions on designated persons involved in undermining the peace process.
- Policy continuity
- Political power is highly personalised around President Kiir and rival factions. Policy is unpredictable and driven by patronage networks. 234% inflation in FY25 reflects macroeconomic policy failure. Property rights are not reliably enforced.