weighted score 6.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Sudan
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Sudan-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
9
Full-scale civil war since April 2023 (SAF vs RSF). World's largest displacement crisis. UAE backing RSF, Egypt backing SAF. No ceasefire prospect in sight. Among the highest-conflict countries globally.
Supplier concentration
5
Near-monopoly on gum arabic (~70% of global supply pre-war). Gold is a significant but conflict-tainted export. Otherwise limited supply chain relevance to global buyers.
Climate & physical risk
5
Severe desertification in north. Seasonal Nile flooding. Famine conditions across multiple regions. 33.7M needing humanitarian aid. Climate stress compounds conflict impact.
Sanctions exposure
4
US, EU, and UN sanctions on individuals and arms. No comprehensive country-wide trade embargo but conflict mineral and forced labour screening obligations apply to gold and other exports.
Policy continuity & property rights
9
No functioning central government. Country split between warring factions. Zero policy framework stability. Property rights unenforceable across most territory. Commercial contracts meaningless in conflict zones.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Civil war
- Full-scale civil war since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict has displaced over 10 million people and created what the UN describes as the world's largest displacement crisis.
- Proxy dynamics
- UAE provides material support to the RSF, primarily through gold trade and arms transfers via Chad. Egypt backs the SAF with military and logistical support. The conflict has become a proxy battleground for regional power competition in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea.
- Territorial fragmentation
- SAF controls eastern and northern Sudan including Port Sudan (de facto capital). RSF controls most of western Sudan (Darfur, Kordofan). Khartoum remains contested. This de facto partition makes unified governance or recovery unlikely in the medium term.
- Buyer implication
- Sudan is effectively unsourceable for any compliance-conscious buyer. The country is a conflict zone with no legitimate commercial infrastructure across most territory. Gum arabic supply chains are the primary residual commercial exposure.
Supply Chain Concentration
Supply Chain Concentration
- Gum arabic
- Sudan historically supplied approximately 70% of global gum arabic (used in food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, and printing). Civil war has severely disrupted production and export, but the commodity concentration means global supply chains have limited alternatives (Chad and Nigeria are secondary sources).
- Gold
- Sudan is a significant artisanal gold producer. Gold exports fund both sides of the conflict, primarily transited through UAE. This is a conflict mineral supply chain with severe due diligence implications.
- Agricultural exports
- Pre-war exports included sesame, groundnuts, and livestock. Agricultural production has collapsed in conflict zones. Any residual exports carry conflict-funding risk.
- Concentration risk signal
- Sudan's primary supply chain relevance is as a near-monopoly gum arabic supplier. Buyers in food and beverage should have pre-positioned alternative sources or reformulation strategies.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Drought & desertification
- Northern Sudan faces severe desertification. Climate change is accelerating Sahel expansion southward, reducing arable land and intensifying resource competition — a contributing factor to the conflict.
- Flooding
- Seasonal flooding along the Nile and its tributaries causes recurring displacement and agricultural damage. Climate variability amplifies flood severity.
- Famine conditions
- Multiple regions face famine conditions in 2026. WFP has cut rations by 70% due to access and funding constraints. 33.7 million people need humanitarian aid — nearly 70% of the population.
- Germanwatch CRI
- Sudan ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally. Combination of conflict, displacement, and climate stress creates compounding humanitarian catastrophe.
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
Sanctions & Policy Continuity
- US sanctions
- Sudan was removed from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords. However, OFAC sanctions on specific individuals and entities remain. The civil war has prompted additional US sanctions targeting both SAF and RSF leaders.
- EU sanctions
- EU arms embargo on Sudan. Targeted sanctions (asset freezes, travel bans) on individuals responsible for violence. Additional designations following 2023 conflict escalation.
- UN sanctions
- UN arms embargo on Darfur. International Criminal Court warrants outstanding for former president Omar al-Bashir and others for genocide in Darfur.
- Policy continuity
- No functioning central government with authority over the whole country. Any commercial arrangement depends on which faction controls the relevant territory. Policy continuity is zero — there is no stable policy framework to be continuous with.