weighted score 3.2 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Suriname
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Suriname-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
2
No active conflicts. Stable regional environment. No border disputes. CARICOM membership provides regional cooperation framework.
Supplier concentration
5
Gold dominates current exports. Oil will dominate from 2028. Bauxite provides some diversification potential. Extreme commodity concentration risk as oil production begins.
Climate & physical risk
5
Coastal flooding risk from sea level rise. Population concentrated on low-lying coast. Over 90% forest cover is a carbon sink asset but faces mining pressure. Tropical storm exposure.
Sanctions exposure
1
No active sanctions from any major jurisdiction. Clean profile across US, EU, UK, and UN. Former president Bouterse convicted but individual, not country-level sanctions.
Policy continuity & property rights
3
IMF programme broadly achieved. Improving institutional frameworks. Dutch legal heritage provides structured regulatory base. Oil revenue management will be the key governance test.
Resource Concentration & Oil Transition
Resource Concentration & Oil Transition
- Offshore oil
- Eight offshore oil discoveries since 2020 are set to transform Suriname's economy. First production is expected in 2028 with projected revenues of $7 billion in the first five years. TotalEnergies and APA Corporation are lead operators.
- Gold mining
- Gold is currently Suriname's largest export. However, the sector has lost over $300 million to irregularities and informal mining. Artisanal gold mining in the interior operates largely outside formal regulatory frameworks.
- Bauxite reserves
- The Bakhuis Mountains contain an estimated 324 million tonnes of bauxite reserves. Development has been delayed by infrastructure constraints and environmental concerns. Bauxite provides potential diversification beyond gold and oil.
Climate & Policy Continuity
Climate & Policy Continuity
- Coastal flooding
- Suriname's population and infrastructure are concentrated along the low-lying coastal plain. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity pose long-term flooding risk to Paramaribo and agricultural areas.
- Forest cover
- Over 90% of Suriname is covered by tropical rainforest — among the highest globally. This represents a significant carbon sink but faces pressure from gold mining and potential oil-related infrastructure development.
- IMF programme
- Suriname's IMF Extended Fund Facility programme has been broadly achieved, stabilising the economy after the 2020 debt crisis. Policy continuity has improved but the political legacy of the Bouterse era and upcoming oil revenues create new governance challenges.