weighted score 3.0 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Tanzania
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Tanzania-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
No active internal conflict. Politically stable. Mozambique Cabo Delgado insurgency presents low-level spillover risk on southern border but has not materially affected supply chains.
Supplier concentration
3
Tanzania is not a dominant global supplier in any single category. Diversified agricultural export base (coffee, cashews, tobacco, sisal). Gold mining significant but not globally concentrated.
Climate & physical risk
5
Periodic drought affecting agricultural output. Dar es Salaam vulnerable to urban flooding. Lake Victoria water level variability. Infrastructure resilience to extreme weather limited.
Sanctions exposure
1
No US, EU, or UN comprehensive sanctions. No significant entity-level sanctions. Broadly positive diplomatic relations with Western and non-Western partners.
Policy continuity & property rights
3
Improving governance trajectory under President Samia Hassan. Greater openness to foreign investment since 2021. Mining sector regulatory framework has stabilised after earlier nationalisation concerns.
Geopolitical Exposure
Geopolitical Exposure
- Internal stability
- Tanzania is politically stable with no active internal armed conflict. The transition from President Magufuli to President Samia Suluhu Hassan in 2021 was orderly. Multi-party elections occur on a regular cycle, though opposition space has been constrained historically.
- Regional spillover
- The Mozambique Cabo Delgado insurgency on Tanzania's southern border presents a low-level spillover risk. Tanzanian security forces have cooperated with SADC regional intervention. Cross-border movement in the Mtwara region warrants monitoring but has not materially disrupted supply chains.
- No sanctions exposure
- Tanzania is not subject to US, EU, or UN comprehensive sanctions. No significant entity-level sanctions affect Tanzanian trade. The country maintains broadly positive diplomatic relations with both Western and non-Western partners.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Drought exposure
- Tanzania experiences periodic droughts affecting agricultural output, particularly in central and northern regions. Coffee and food crop production are sensitive to rainfall variability. Climate change is increasing drought frequency and intensity.
- Lake Victoria & water stress
- Lake Victoria water levels have shown long-term variability, with declining trends affecting fishing communities and regional water supply. Water stress in the Lake Victoria basin has implications for agricultural processing and community livelihoods.
- Flooding
- Seasonal flooding affects coastal and riverine areas. Dar es Salaam is vulnerable to urban flooding which can disrupt port operations and road transport networks. Infrastructure resilience to extreme weather events is limited.