weighted score 4.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Turkey
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Turkey-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
5
Active military operations in northern Syria. PKK insurgency ongoing in eastern provinces. NATO member but S-400 purchase created tensions with Western allies. Regional instability from Syria, Iraq, and broader Middle East.
Supplier concentration
4
~70% of global hazelnut supply. ~70% of global boron reserves. Significant chromite producer. Concentration creates commodity-specific vulnerability for food and industrial buyers.
Climate & physical risk
5
February 2023 earthquake killed 50,000+ and destroyed infrastructure in southeastern Turkey. Seismic Zone 1 covers much of eastern and southern Anatolia. Black Sea hazelnut region vulnerable to frost and climate variability.
Sanctions exposure
3
CAATSA sanctions applied over S-400 purchase. No broad Western sanctions regime. EU accession process frozen but Customs Union remains in force. Limited sanctions risk relative to peer countries.
Policy continuity & property rights
5
Executive presidential system concentrates power. Central bank independence compromised. Multiple governor dismissals. Lira depreciation reflects monetary policy unpredictability. Regulatory environment less predictable than EU or OECD average.
Conflict & Security
Conflict & Security
- Syria & PKK
- Turkey has conducted multiple military operations in northern Syria since 2016 targeting Kurdish YPG/PKK forces. Cross-border operations create ongoing security risk in southeastern Turkey. The PKK insurgency — active since 1984 — continues to affect eastern provinces.
- NATO & S-400
- Turkey is a NATO member but its 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 missile defence systems triggered US CAATSA sanctions and exclusion from the F-35 programme. This dual positioning creates uncertainty for defence-adjacent supply chains and signals policy unpredictability to Western partners.
- 2023 earthquake
- The February 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence killed over 50,000 people and caused massive infrastructure destruction across southeastern Turkey. The disaster exposed building code enforcement failures and created significant supply chain disruption in affected industrial zones.
Political Risk & Commodity Concentration
Political Risk & Commodity Concentration
- Erdogan centralisation
- Turkey transitioned to an executive presidential system in 2018, concentrating power in the presidency. Central bank independence has been compromised — multiple governor dismissals and unorthodox monetary policy have contributed to lira depreciation and high inflation. Regulatory predictability has declined.
- Hazelnut dominance
- Turkey produces approximately 70% of the global hazelnut supply, concentrated in the Black Sea coastal region. This creates extreme commodity concentration risk for global confectionery and food manufacturers. Climate events, frost, or policy changes in Turkey directly affect global hazelnut prices and availability.
- Strategic commodity exposure
- Beyond hazelnuts, Turkey is a significant producer of boron minerals (~70% of global reserves), chromite, and marble. Concentration of these commodities in a single country with elevated political risk creates supply vulnerability for industrial buyers.