weighted score 3.0 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Vanuatu
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Vanuatu-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
1
No active conflicts or border disputes. No military. Political instability is parliamentary/procedural, not violent. No regional security tensions.
Supplier concentration
2
Tourism-dependent but diverse agricultural exports (copra, cocoa, kava). No single commodity creates critical supply concentration risk for global buyers.
Climate & physical risk
8
Among world's most climate-vulnerable nations. Cyclone Pam (2015) = 64% GDP damage. Twin Cyclones 2023. Sea level rise. Recurring catastrophic physical disruption.
Sanctions exposure
1
No formal sanctions. Offshore financial centre draws FATF/EU scrutiny but no sanctioned entities. Citizenship-by-investment programme is reputational rather than sanctions risk.
Policy continuity & property rights
3
Political instability at parliamentary level but basic policy continuity maintained. Customary land tenure established. CPI 47 reflects governance concerns. Investment framework exists but capacity limited.
Stability & Concentration
Stability & Concentration
- Political instability
- Vanuatu experiences frequent government changes through no-confidence motions and coalition reshuffling. Political instability is structural rather than violent — it reflects patronage-based coalition politics rather than civil conflict risk.
- Economic concentration
- Tourism dominates the economy but is extremely vulnerable to cyclone damage (Pam 2015, Twin Cyclones 2023). Copra, cocoa, and kava provide agricultural diversification but at small scale. Offshore financial services add some non-commodity revenue.
- Sanctions status
- No active US, EU, or UK sanctions. However, Vanuatu's offshore financial centre and citizenship-by-investment programme have drawn FATF scrutiny and EU concern about potential money laundering facilitation.
Climate & Physical Risk
Climate & Physical Risk
- Extreme cyclone vulnerability
- Vanuatu is among the world's most disaster-prone nations. Cyclone Pam (2015, Category 5) caused damage equal to 64% of GDP. Twin Cyclones Judy and Kevin (March 2023) struck within 48 hours. Climate risk score of 8 reflects this extreme and recurring physical exposure.
- Policy continuity
- Despite political instability at the parliamentary level, basic policy frameworks and property rights are maintained. Customary land tenure is complex but established. Foreign investment framework exists but capacity to administer is limited.