weighted score 3.4 · five dimensions
Geopolitical & Concentration Risk
Zambia
Geopolitical conflict, supplier concentration, climate exposure, sanctions risk and policy continuity intelligence for Zambia-origin supply chains.
Geopolitical conflict
3
No active conflict or insurgency. Politically stable with peaceful democratic transitions. One of the most stable countries in Southern Africa.
Supplier concentration
4
Copper is the dominant export commodity (#7 global producer). Cobalt and emeralds provide some diversification. Limited manufacturing base beyond extractives.
Climate & physical risk
5
2024 El Nino drought caused severe power crisis due to hydropower dependence (Kariba Dam). Recurring drought risk directly threatens mining and industrial output.
Sanctions exposure
1
No international sanctions. No entity list designations. Zambia is not subject to any trade restrictions from the US, EU, or other major jurisdictions.
Policy continuity & property rights
4
Hichilema administration is pro-Western and reform-oriented. Debt restructuring completed under G20 Common Framework. Mining code revisions ongoing. Property rights framework is functional but land tenure complexity remains.
Stability & Geopolitical Alignment
Stability & Geopolitical Alignment
- Political stability
- Zambia is one of the most politically stable countries in Southern Africa. No active conflict or insurgency. Peaceful transfer of power in the 2021 election demonstrated democratic resilience.
- Geopolitical alignment
- President Hichilema has pursued a pro-Western orientation, strengthening ties with the US and EU. Zambia has engaged constructively with the G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring, signalling institutional credibility.
- Debt restructuring
- Zambia defaulted on its Eurobond in 2020 and completed a debt restructuring agreement in 2024 under the G20 Common Framework — the first African country to do so. China was a major creditor and participated in the restructuring.
Concentration & Climate Risk
Concentration & Climate Risk
- Copper concentration
- Zambia is the world's #7 copper producer. Copper dominates the export base, creating commodity concentration risk. Supplier concentration score of 4 reflects moderate diversification within the mining sector but limited breadth beyond it.
- El Nino drought crisis
- The 2024 El Nino drought caused a severe power crisis. Zambia is heavily dependent on hydropower (primarily Kariba Dam), and reduced water levels led to rolling blackouts affecting mining operations and the broader economy.
- Climate vulnerability
- Hydropower dependence makes Zambia's energy supply — and therefore its mining and industrial output — directly vulnerable to climate variability. Drought risk is a recurring structural concern for supply chain reliability.