Oil Inventories
U.S. weekly petroleum stocks measured against the five-year seasonal band. Below the band means the market is drawing on supply faster than seasonal norms; above means slack is building. The inventory lens verdict summarizes the position.[1]
How to read this page: ● measured sourced data · ◐ inferred analyst reading, basis linked · ○ projected anchored to a real starting point. Bracketed citations link to the sources at the foot of the page.
Feeds the Tension Board via stock levels relative to the seasonal band. Fed by EIA WPSR, JODI-Oil, Refineries, Price transmission.
U.S. stocks vs five-year seasonal band
Commercial crude oil (excl. SPR), Mbbl
Total motor gasoline, Mbbl
Distillate fuel oil, Mbbl
Kerosene-type jet fuel, Mbbl
Band: min-max range of the five complete calendar years preceding the current year, by ISO week. Dashed line: five-year average. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.[1]
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
SPR crude stocks: 283M bbl as of 2026-10-02. The SPR is policy-driven, not market-driven, so it does not enter the five-year band or the inventory lens verdict.[1]
World oil stocks (JODI)
JODI closing stock levels (monthly, ~2-3 month reporting lag). OECD-proxy aggregate: US, EU-27, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada. World total includes all JODI-reporting countries.[2]
| Product | OECD-proxy | World | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| crude | 2293M bbl | 3361M bbl | 2025-12 |
| distillate | 942M bbl | 1702M bbl | 2025-12 |
| gasoline | 737M bbl | 1520M bbl | 2025-12 |
Inventory lens verdict
| Product | Current | 5yr min | 5yr avg | 5yr max | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude (excl. SPR) | 424M | 420M | 427M | 439M | Within 5-year range |
| Gasoline | 205M | 209M | 218M | 226M | Below 5-year range |
| Distillate | 105M | 106M | 118M | 129M | Below 5-year range |
| Jet fuel | 43M | 36M | 42M | 44M | Within 5-year range |
Week 40 (2026-10-02). Verdict is mechanical: below the five-year weekly min = tight, above the max = loose, otherwise normal. Values in Mbbl.[1]
Reading the numbers
Why normal US distillate stocks do not contradict the diesel crisis
The US is the surviving export pump. Scarcity lives at the importers (Europe, Asia). Record US diesel cracks price the world's pull on US supply, not a US shortage. Jet fuel slack reflects demand destruction, not oversupply. The stocks-vs-band verdict measures the tank at the pump; the crisis is measured in the spread.
Which tank is full
The inventory lens tracks US commercial working stocks (the highest-frequency measured series, weekly from EIA). These are below the five-year seasonal minimum. Global crude availability, including the SPR, OPEC spare capacity, and floating storage, is a different and larger measure on slower cadences. Both statements can be true simultaneously; the lens names its geography and tank.
Sources and method (2)
U.S. stocks: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (weekly, public domain). World stocks: JODI-Oil closing stock levels (monthly, ~2-3 month lag).