The Paper Market

What the financial market believes about oil: speculative positioning (who is long, who is short), the official consensus forecast, and how volatile the market has been. Together these form the paper lens for the Tension Board.

How to read this page: ● measured sourced data · ◐ inferred analyst reading, basis linked · ○ projected anchored to a real starting point. Bracketed citations link to the sources at the foot of the page.

Positioning lensbearish (stale)crude

Feeds the Tension Board via speculative direction and conviction. Fed by CFTC COT, EIA STEO, Oil inventories, Refineries, Maritime.

WTI net MM (ICE)

-24.2k[1]

2026-07-14

Brent net MM

12.5k[1]

2026-07-14

STEO Brent fwd

$64[2]

2027-12

Realized vol (20d)

131%[3]

99

Managed-money positioning (CFTC)

Net managed-money contracts (long minus short) from the CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report. Positive = speculators are net long (bullish), negative = net short (bearish). Weekly, Tuesday close, reported Friday.[1]

WTI (ICE Futures Europe): net managed-money contracts

2025-07-22: -61,632 contracts2025-07-29: -58,620 contracts2025-08-05: -59,453 contracts2025-08-12: -57,536 contracts2025-08-19: -44,457 contracts2025-08-26: -40,862 contracts2025-09-02: -40,779 contracts2025-09-09: -40,586 contracts2025-09-16: -35,887 contracts2025-09-23: -34,194 contracts2025-09-30: -30,899 contracts2025-10-07: -29,539 contracts2025-10-14: -28,203 contracts2025-10-21: -30,793 contracts2025-10-28: -31,087 contracts2025-11-04: -29,695 contracts2025-11-10: -25,983 contracts2025-11-18: -28,999 contracts2025-11-25: -27,134 contracts2025-12-02: -23,718 contracts2025-12-09: -24,809 contracts2025-12-16: -34,608 contracts2025-12-23: -33,737 contracts2025-12-30: -36,522 contracts2026-01-06: -38,075 contracts2026-01-13: -37,375 contracts2026-01-20: -38,322 contracts2026-01-27: -38,718 contracts2026-02-03: -21,802 contracts2026-02-10: -20,517 contracts2026-02-17: -19,479 contracts2026-02-24: -23,384 contracts2026-03-03: -17,089 contracts2026-03-10: -28,145 contracts2026-03-17: -31,287 contracts2026-03-24: -29,280 contracts2026-03-31: -33,814 contracts2026-04-07: -35,690 contracts2026-04-14: -45,234 contracts2026-04-21: -40,971 contracts2026-04-28: -37,833 contracts2026-05-05: -37,321 contracts2026-05-12: -43,791 contracts2026-05-19: -34,877 contracts2026-05-26: -30,858 contracts2026-06-02: -26,694 contracts2026-06-09: -27,568 contracts2026-06-16: -23,666 contracts2026-06-23: -18,387 contracts2026-06-30: -14,657 contracts2026-07-07: -15,417 contracts2026-07-14: -24,220 contracts-62k0k62k07-2201-2007-14

Brent (NYMEX): net managed-money contracts

2025-07-22: 4,185 contracts2025-07-29: 4,318 contracts2025-08-05: 2,440 contracts2025-08-12: -69 contracts2025-08-19: -276 contracts2025-08-26: -1,603 contracts2025-09-02: 4,709 contracts2025-09-09: 4,204 contracts2025-09-16: 5,415 contracts2025-09-23: 5,457 contracts2025-09-30: 6,116 contracts2025-10-07: 10,610 contracts2025-10-14: 8,431 contracts2025-10-21: 11,000 contracts2025-10-28: 11,353 contracts2025-11-04: 18,620 contracts2025-11-10: 18,488 contracts2025-11-18: 16,738 contracts2025-11-25: 13,947 contracts2025-12-02: 15,434 contracts2025-12-09: 14,829 contracts2025-12-16: 10,924 contracts2025-12-23: 14,950 contracts2025-12-30: 15,653 contracts2026-01-06: 16,484 contracts2026-01-13: 17,713 contracts2026-01-20: 14,220 contracts2026-01-27: 17,105 contracts2026-02-03: 13,281 contracts2026-02-10: 14,238 contracts2026-02-17: 10,836 contracts2026-02-24: 11,048 contracts2026-03-03: 15,099 contracts2026-03-10: 14,194 contracts2026-03-17: 13,317 contracts2026-03-24: 22,277 contracts2026-03-31: 19,881 contracts2026-04-07: 15,620 contracts2026-04-14: 14,323 contracts2026-04-21: 13,431 contracts2026-04-28: 13,812 contracts2026-05-05: 17,049 contracts2026-05-12: 15,063 contracts2026-05-19: 12,930 contracts2026-05-26: 9,568 contracts2026-06-02: 6,799 contracts2026-06-09: 7,755 contracts2026-06-16: 8,130 contracts2026-06-23: 6,823 contracts2026-06-30: 6,498 contracts2026-07-07: 12,356 contracts2026-07-14: 12,537 contracts-22k0k22k07-2201-2007-14

Realized volatility

20-trading-day rolling realized volatility of Brent spot (annualized). Computed from log returns on EIA daily spot prices (public domain, our own computation). This is the corridor-width yardstick: a house read on the Tension Board is stakeable only if its corridor is either narrower than this or materially displaced from the futures-implied median.[3]

20-day realized volatility (Brent, annualized %)

0%20%40%60%80%71082599

EIA consensus forecast (STEO)

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is the public consensus baseline. Not our forecast; displayed as the market's official expectation to score against. Latest Brent: $87/bbl (2026-08), forecast to $64/bbl by 2027-12.[2]

STEO supply/demand balance at horizon (2027-12): production 111.3 mb/d, consumption 106.6 mb/d, balance +4.7 mb/d.[2]

Sources and method (3)
  1. [1] CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders
  2. [2] EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
  3. [3] EIA spot prices (daily)

Positioning: CFTC Disaggregated Futures-Only reports (weekly, US government work). Prices and volatility: EIA spot prices (daily, public domain). Forecast: EIA STEO (monthly).